玉米系产业日报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, the overall trend remains weak, and a bearish approach is recommended. The expected opening price of new grain in domestic main producing areas is not high, large grain - using enterprises' inventories can connect with the new season's corn, some processing enterprises are stopping purchases, and factors like policy - grain rotation and wheat substitution are suppressing the market, cooling the bullish sentiment and expanding the downward range of the spot market [2]. - For corn starch, the overall trend also remains weak, and a bearish approach is recommended. With the resumption of work of previously - overhauled enterprises, the industry's operating rate has increased, leading to greater supply pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in a clear oversupply situation [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2154 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan; corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2481 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan. Corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 8 yuan/ton, and corn starch monthly spread (11 - 1) is - 17 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures open interest: 28815 hands for yellow corn and 984080 hands for corn starch. Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders are - 120088 hands for corn and - 22883 hands for corn starch [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 94340 hands for yellow corn (down 8950 hands) and 7450 hands for corn starch (unchanged) [2]. - The CS - C spread of the main contract is 360 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2]. 3.2 Outer - Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 411.75 cents/bushel, down 1 cent. CBOT corn total open interest (weekly) is 1566367 contracts, an increase of 16491 contracts. Non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are - 105210 contracts, an increase of 27964 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2368.43 yuan/ton, down 5.1 yuan. Factory quotes for corn starch are 2710 yuan/ton in Changchun, 2950 yuan/ton in Weifang, and 2880 yuan/ton in Shijiazhuang [2]. - The CIF price of imported corn is 1923.11 yuan/ton, down 3.14 yuan. The international freight of imported corn is unchanged [2]. - The basis of the corn main contract is 15.9 yuan/ton, and the basis of the corn starch main contract is 229 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [2]. 3.4 Substitute Spot Prices - The average spot price of wheat is 2431.61 yuan/ton, down 0.39 yuan. The spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 157 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan [2]. 3.5 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 398.93 million hectares, and the predicted output is 35.12 million tons (down 0.25 million tons). In Brazil, the sown area is 22.6 million hectares (unchanged), and the output is 131 million tons (unchanged) [2]. - In Argentina, the sown area is 53 million hectares (unchanged), and the output is 7.5 million tons (unchanged). In China, the sown area is 295 million hectares (unchanged), and the output is 44.3 million tons (unchanged). In Ukraine, the output is 30.5 million tons (unchanged) [2]. 3.6 Industry Situation - Corn inventories at southern ports are 67.1 tons (down 8 tons), and at northern ports are 203 tons (down 44 tons). Deep - processing corn inventories are 314.7 tons (down 25.5 tons) [2]. - Starch enterprise weekly inventories are 133.9 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons from last week, a weekly increase of 0.53%, a monthly increase of 2.14%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.61% [2][3]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 6 tons (down 10 tons), and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 14.5 tons (down 13.28 tons) [2]. - The monthly output of feed is 2937.7 tons [2]. 3.7 Downstream Situation - The average inventory days of sample feed corn are 28.85 days, down 0.76 days. The deep - processing corn consumption is 113.62 tons, down 0.44 tons [2]. - The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 43.57% (up 1.57%), and the operating rate of starch enterprises is 52.3% (down 3.6%) [2]. 3.8 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.29% (up 0.42%), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 5.94% (up 0.08%) [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.89% (up 1.01%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.91% (up 1.04%) [2]. 3.9 Industry News - ProFarmer's final yield forecast report shows that the total US corn production in 2025 is expected to reach 16.204 billion bushels, with an average yield of 182.7 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA's August forecast of 16.742 billion bushels and 188.8 bushels per acre [2]. - As of August 20, the harvest progress of Argentine corn in the 2024/25 season is 95.9%, 1.3% higher than a week ago but 2.8% lower than the same period last year and 1.1% lower than the five - year average [2]. 3.10 Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to Mysteel's weekly corn consumption, as well as the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]