PVC产业日报-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - V2601 oscillated with a bullish bias, closing at 5047 yuan/ton. This week, the restart of overhauled devices and the annual inspection of a 400,000 - ton device at Formosa Plastics Ningbo are expected to increase production and capacity utilization. There are many PVC production plans in August, increasing medium - to - long - term supply pressure. Domestic product orders are insufficient, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The weak terminal real estate market continues to drag down domestic demand. The anti - dumping investigation in India increases export difficulties, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction and putting pressure on prices. Technically, V2601 should pay attention to the support around 4900 and the pressure around 5100 [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 5047 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan; the trading volume was 1,088,126 lots, up 395,393 lots; the open interest was 1,008,160 lots, up 26,929 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures was 853,070 lots, up 1,523 lots; the short position was 934,697 lots, up 19,110 lots; the net long position was - 81,627 lots, down 17,587 lots [3] Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4762.31 yuan/ton, down 10.77 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4985 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4857.5 yuan/ton, down 5.62 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 725 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 279 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2565 yuan/ton, up 16.67 yuan; in the Northwest, it was 2337 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR in the Far East was 521 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR in the Far East was 181 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 77.61%, down 2.72 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 76.81%, down 3.15 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 79.59%, down 1.67 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 508,000 tons, up 15,200 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region was 450,200 tons, up 15,000 tons; in the South China region, it was 57,800 tons, up 200 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The national real estate prosperity index was 93.34, down 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 35,2060,000 square meters, up 48,416,800 square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6,387,310,000 square meters, up 54,095,700 square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 281.0593 billion yuan, up 36.3043 billion yuan [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.7%, down 2.69 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 21.81%, down 0.22 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.22%, up 0.01 percentage point; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.22%, unchanged [3] Industry News - On August 25, the market price of PVC SG5 in Shanghai, Changzhou, and Hangzhou increased by 0 - 30 yuan/ton compared with last Friday, ranging from 4750 to 4830 yuan/ton. From August 16 to August 22, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.72%. As of August 21, the social inventory of PVC increased by 5.09% month - on - month to 852,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.50% [3]