铁矿石产业链日报-20250825

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that on Monday, the I2601 contract increased in volume and price. Macroscopically, Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank symposium strengthened the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut. In terms of supply and demand, the arrival volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased this period, while domestic port inventories continued to rise. The blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained high, with a slight increase in molten iron production, and the daily average output remained above 2.4 million tons. Overall, the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut increased, and the high - level operation of molten iron production and the firm spot price supported the futures price. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were rising. The operation suggestion is to be bullish on fluctuations, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 787 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the position volume was 464,830 lots, up 12,205 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 19.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 5,873 lots, down 9,565 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt was 2,000 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main contract was quoted at 103.3 US dollars/ton at 15:00, up 2.71 US dollars [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 848 yuan/dry ton, up 15 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore was 835 yuan/dry ton, up 15 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 725 yuan/dry ton, up 16 yuan. The I main contract basis (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 48 yuan, down 2 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index was 100.35 US dollars/ton (previous day), down 0.45 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.38, down 0.08. The estimated import cost was 822 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume was 3,315.80 million tons (weekly), down 90.80 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,462.30 million tons (weekly), down 240.80 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 14,444.20 million tons (weekly), up 62.63 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills was 9,065.47 million tons (weekly), down 70.93 million tons. The iron ore import volume was 10,462.00 million tons (monthly), down 133.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore were 18 days (weekly), down 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines was 39.79 million tons (weekly), down 1.39 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines was 62.96% (weekly), down 2.02 percentage points. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines was 32.95 million tons (weekly), down 1.65 million tons. The BDI index was 1,944.00, up 51.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.26 US dollars/ton, up 0.02 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.14 US dollars/ton, up 0.25 US dollars [2]. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.34% (weekly), down 0.23 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.27% (weekly), up 0.03 percentage points. The domestic crude steel output was 7,966 million tons (monthly), down 353 million tons [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.23% (daily), up 0.33 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 19.86% (daily), up 0.59 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 18.41% (daily), up 0.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 19.67% (daily), up 2.06 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From August 18th to August 24th, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3,315.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 90.8 million tons. The total iron ore shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,760.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.4 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,462.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 240.8 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,393.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 83.3 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,153.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 99.5 million tons [2].