合成橡胶产业日报-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production of cis - butadiene rubber in China has increased, and the domestic supply may significantly increase with the release of the production capacity of some overhauled devices, and the finished - product inventory level is expected to rise. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tires increased last week, but there may be a slight decline this week due to factors such as high - temperature weather and limited overall order increments. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,850 - 12,300 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,010 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 310 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 46,705 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 10,950 lots. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 20 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 2,490 tons, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in different regions ranges from 11,700 yuan/ton, with price decreases ranging from 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 90 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 115 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 67.73 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.06 dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 587 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.5 dollars/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 830 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,095 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 15 dollars/ton. The price of WTI crude oil is 63.66 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.14 dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,315 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 110 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, with no week - on - week change; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 68.15%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.54 percentage points. The terminal port inventory of butadiene is 27,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 6,900 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 49.13%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.61 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 129,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 69.15%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.63 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 458 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 24 yuan/ton. The terminal social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 30,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 200 tons; the terminal manufacturer inventory is 23,200 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 250 tons; the terminal trader inventory is 7,410 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 420 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 73.13%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 64.76%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.67 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.74 million pieces. The terminal inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.76 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.25 days; the terminal inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.05 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.32 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of August 21, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 200 tons and a week - on - week growth rate of 0.56%. As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.87%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 64.97%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. Most of the previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber devices have been restarted, and the domestic output has increased. Affected by the surrounding market, the mainstream supply price has further increased, but the strong price - pressing procurement sentiment of downstream customers has led to slow terminal sales [2]