多晶硅产业日报-20250825
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-25 09:39
- Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - The supply of polysilicon is increasing while the demand is weakening. It is expected that the polysilicon market will continue to adjust next week. Although the price is supported by cost and policies, the upside space is limited by the downstream acceptance, and it is likely to continue to show a volatile trend. The overall situation will still maintain a volatile state. Today, polysilicon showed an overall upward and then downward trend, maintaining a volatile state. It is expected that the future price center may further decline. The operation suggestion is to layout put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 51,580 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 175; the 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon is - 2,380, with a week - on - week decrease of 155 [2] - The main position volume of polysilicon is 136,801 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 5,596; the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 42,660 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 235 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 49,000 yuan/ton, with no change; the average price of polycrystalline silicon (cauliflower material) is 30 yuan/kg, with no change [2] - The basis of polysilicon is - 2,580 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 175; the average price of polycrystalline silicon (dense material) is 36 yuan/kg, with no change [2] - The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, with no change; the average price of polycrystalline silicon (re - feeding material) is 34.8 yuan/kg, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 8,745 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 110; the export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons per month, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] - The spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100; the import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons per month, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons [2] - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 324,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 19,500 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 105,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,170 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 57 tons [2] - The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.46 US dollars/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.16; the monthly average import price of polysilicon in China is 2.19 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 66,382,000 kilowatts, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,004,000 kilowatts; the weekly comprehensive price index (SPI) of the photovoltaic industry for polysilicon is 28.48, with a week - on - week increase of 0.62 [2] - The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01; the monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 110,432,680 units, with a month - on - month increase of 21,456,820 units [2] - The monthly import volume of photovoltaic modules is 14,525,650 units, with a month - on - month increase of 3,429,750 units; the monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.29 US dollars/unit, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 [2] Industry News - In the first half of 2025, LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. achieved an operating income of 32.813 billion yuan, with a significant reduction in losses of 2.661 billion yuan compared with the same period of the previous year. This was mainly due to the improvement of operation efficiency, which led to a significant decline in sales and management expenses and a significant reduction in asset impairment losses. Technological innovation became the key to breaking the situation. LONGi Green Energy started a new round of technological engine drive with its leading differentiated BC technology [2] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and take promoting a reasonable recovery of prices as an important consideration for monetary policy. In terms of polysilicon, from the supply side, the weekly output of polysilicon has climbed, and it is expected that the output of polysilicon will increase in August. If the "production and sales restriction" is implemented in September, the monthly output may be flat compared with the previous month. However, from the current situation, the previously ramping - up bases in the southwest are at full production, and although some enterprises in the northwest are starting and stopping, the overall output still shows an increasing trend [2] View Summary - The supply of polysilicon is increasing, while the demand is weakening. The price of silicon wafers is stable, and some enterprises have raised prices, but the downstream is highly wait - and - see. The impact of weak terminal demand is gradually emerging. Although the quotes of the photovoltaic industry chain have been raised, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the market has not changed, and the terminal transaction pressure is relatively large, which restricts the demand for polysilicon to a certain extent [2] Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2]