油脂油料产业日报-20250825

Report Core Views - For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are in high - level consolidation. Short - term, it will test the support at 4500 ringgit, and may briefly drop to 4350 ringgit. After stabilization, it may return to 4500 ringgit. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are also in high - level consolidation, testing the 9500 yuan support. If it holds above 9500 yuan, it may rise to 9800 - 10000 yuan by the end of the month, then likely start a downward trend due to September's potential production increase [3]. - For soybean oil, affected by biodiesel policy news, CBOT soybeans are in high - level consolidation. In the domestic market, demand has started, boosting futures. However, the expected US soybean harvest may cause CBOT soybeans to fall, limiting the increase of Dalian soybean oil. The January contract of Dalian soybean oil is around 8500 yuan. If US soybean and soybean oil futures fall, it may drop to 8300 yuan; otherwise, it may rise to 8700 yuan [4]. - For soybean meal, as of the end of the 34th week in 2025, the domestic soybean meal inventory is 106.3 tons, up 1.04% from last week. Affected by environmental policies, some oil mills in North China will shut down briefly at the end of the month. Prices of oil mills and traders have risen by 10 - 30 yuan/ton [18]. Market Data Fats and Oils Price and Spread - Palm Oil: BMD palm oil closed at 4507 ringgit/ton, down 0.49%. Dalian palm oil futures: 01 contract at 9582 yuan/ton, down 0.1%; 05 at 9290 yuan/ton, down 0.04%; 09 at 9488 yuan/ton, down 0.23%. The spread between P 1 - 5 is 298 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [5][8]. - Soybean Oil: CBOT soybean oil closed at 55.2 cents/pound, up 2.66%. Dalian soybean oil futures: 01 contract at 8488 yuan/ton, up 0.94%; 05 at 8180 yuan/ton, up 0.49%; 09 at 8536 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The spread between Y 1 - 5 is 316 yuan/ton, unchanged [5][14]. - Price Spread: Y - P 01 is - 1134 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; Y/M 01 is 2.739, unchanged [5]. Oilseed Futures Price - Soybean Meal: 01 contract closed at 3117, up 29 (0.94%); 05 at 2844, up 14 (0.49%); 09 at 3061, up 20 (0.66%) [19]. - Rapeseed Meal: 01 contract closed at 2547, up 4 (0.16%); 05 at 2473, up 4 (0.16%); 09 at 2602, up 18 (0.7%) [19]. Spread of Oilseeds - Soybean Meal Spread: M01 - 05 is 258, unchanged; M05 - 09 is - 211, up 18; M09 - 01 is - 47, down 4 [20][22]. - Rapeseed Meal Spread: RM01 - 05 is 74, down 11; RM05 - 09 is - 115, up 19; RM09 - 01 is 41, down 8 [20][22].