贵金属有色金属产业日报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the document. 2. Report's Core View - The gold price is expected to maintain a short - term volatile pattern due to the mixed influence of the Fed's potential interest rate cut and the risk of inflation pressure from Trump's tariff policy [3]. - The copper price may continue to fluctuate around 79,000 yuan per ton, with upward pressure and limited downward space [15]. - The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, while alumina is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [35]. - The zinc price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, with an increasingly obvious pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic prices [64]. - The nickel - related market is affected by multiple factors such as nickel ore price, downstream demand, and macro - level factors, and the stainless steel price may have a certain correction [80]. - The tin price is expected to be mainly volatile in the next week [95]. - The lithium carbonate futures market is expected to enter a volatile consolidation stage, while the spot market sentiment is expected to remain strong [106]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to be in bottom - level volatility in the short term, and the polysilicon futures are expected to be volatile and strong [115]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - Daily View: Fed Chair Powell's signal of a potential interest rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting has increased the market's expectation of a September rate cut to 85%, but the risk of inflation pressure from Trump's tariff policy may delay the rate - cut rhythm, leading to a short - term volatile gold price [3]. - Price Data: Various price charts of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, including prices, ratios, and spreads, are presented [4][9][12]. - Long - term Fund Holdings: The long - term fund holdings of gold and silver show certain trends [12][13]. - Inventory Data: The inventory data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver are provided [14]. 3.2 Copper - Daily View: The Fed's meeting minutes have little impact on copper prices, but Powell's speech has boosted the overall valuation of non - ferrous metals. The copper price may continue to fluctuate around 79,000 yuan per ton, and investors need to pay attention to relevant economic data [15]. - Futures Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are presented [16]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of copper spot in different regions are provided, along with import profit and loss and processing fee data [21][27]. - Inventory Data: The inventory data of SHFE and LME copper are provided, showing changes in warehouse receipts and inventories [32][33]. 3.3 Aluminum - Daily View: Aluminum prices have experienced a correction due to tariff policies, but low inventory and inventory reduction provide support, and the short - term trend is volatile and strong. Alumina has a weak fundamental situation and is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [35]. - Futures Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures are presented [37]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum spot in different regions are provided, along with relevant basis and spread data [50]. - Inventory Data: The inventory data of SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina are provided, showing changes in warehouse receipts and inventories [59]. 3.4 Zinc - Daily View: The zinc supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and the demand is weak. The zinc price is mainly volatile in the short term, with an obvious pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic prices [64]. - Price Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and LME zinc futures are presented [65]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc spot are provided, along with relevant basis and spread data [71]. - Inventory Data: The inventory data of SHFE and LME zinc are provided, showing changes in warehouse receipts and inventories [76]. 3.5 Nickel - Daily View: The nickel - related market is affected by factors such as nickel ore price, downstream demand, and macro - level factors. The stainless steel price may have a certain correction [80]. - Price Data: The latest prices, changes, and change rates of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures are presented [81]. - Related Data: Various data such as nickel spot price, nickel ore price, and downstream profit are provided [86][88][90]. 3.6 Tin - Daily View: The tin price is expected to be mainly volatile in the next week, supported by the decline in social inventory and stable demand [95]. - Futures Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are presented [96]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of tin spot are provided [100]. - Inventory Data: The inventory data of SHFE and LME tin are provided, showing changes in warehouse receipts and inventories [102]. 3.7 Lithium Carbonate - Daily View: The lithium carbonate futures market is expected to enter a volatile consolidation stage, while the spot market sentiment is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the downstream production schedule in September [106]. - Futures Data: The price changes of lithium carbonate futures, including the closing prices of different contracts and the spreads between contracts, are presented [107]. - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, daily change rates, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of lithium - related spot are provided [109]. - Inventory Data: The inventory data of lithium carbonate, including warehouse receipts and social inventories, are provided [113]. 3.8 Silicon Industry Chain - Daily View: The industrial silicon market is expected to be in bottom - level volatility in the short term, and the polysilicon futures are expected to be volatile and strong [115]. - Industrial Silicon: - Spot Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon in different regions are presented, along with basis and spread data [116]. - Futures Data: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures are presented [117]. - Related Data: Various data such as price charts, basis seasonality, and production and inventory data are provided [118][120][132]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon futures are in a typical volatile convergence stage, and the market may break through the current range. The industry integration is expected to support the market [115]. - Price Data: The price trends of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and related products are presented [122][123]. - Inventory and Cost Data: The inventory and cost data of polysilicon are provided [138][141].