瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250825

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - For soda ash, supply is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will generally face downward pressure. However, with anti - involution speculation, there may be variables. It's recommended to buy soda ash futures on dips in the short - term [2]. - For glass, the supply remains at a low level with no change in production, and demand is affected by the poor real - estate situation. There is a small increase in inventory, but the de - stocking trend remains. It's advisable to buy glass futures on dips in the short - term, but avoid over - chasing the long position [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash: The closing price of the main contract is 1337 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan), the position of the main contract is 1372600 lots (down 10676 lots), the net position of the top 20 is - 325488 (down 23179), the exchange warehouse receipt is 9064 tons (down 9 tons), the spread between September and January contracts is - 111 (down 11), and the basis is - 121 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan) [2]. - Glass: The closing price of the main contract is 1191 yuan/ton (up 18 yuan), the position of the main contract is 1148707 lots (down 60017 lots), the net position of the top 20 is - 234728 (down 21109), the exchange warehouse receipt is 1643 tons (unchanged), the spread between September and January contracts is - 192 (down 16), and the basis is - 101 (down 13) [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Soda ash: The price of North China heavy soda is 1220 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan), Central China heavy soda is 1325 yuan/ton (unchanged), East China light soda is 1265 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Central China light soda is 1220 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Glass: The price of Shahe glass大板 is 1064 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan), and Central China glass大板 is 1090 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash: The weekly operating rate of soda ash plants is 88.48% (up 1.16%), and the weekly inventory of soda ash enterprises is 189.73 tons (up 0.35 tons) [2]. - Glass: The weekly operating rate of float glass enterprises is 75.34% (unchanged), the weekly in - production capacity is 15.96 million tons/year (unchanged), the number of in - production lines is 223 (unchanged), and the weekly inventory of glass enterprises is 6360.6 ten - thousand heavy boxes (up 18 ten - thousand heavy boxes) [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Real estate: The cumulative new construction area is 352060000 square meters (up 48416800 square meters), and the cumulative completion area is 250340000 square meters (up 24673900 square meters) [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The central bank will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on Monday [2]. - From January to July 2025, the national actual use of foreign capital was 467.34 billion yuan [2]. - The Hang Seng Index added China Telecom, JD Logistics, and Pop Mart, with the number of constituent stocks increasing to 88 [2]. - The central bank and SAFE solicited public opinions on the "Regulations on the Inter - bank Foreign Exchange Market (Draft for Comment)" [2]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association called for resisting vicious competition at prices below cost and blind expansion [2].