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瑞达期货纯苯产业日报-20250825
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-25 12:02

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 shows a weakening and oscillating trend, closing at 6,206 yuan/ton. The supply of pure benzene is expected to remain abundant, while the consumption may continue to be weak. The situation of supply exceeding demand in the domestic pure benzene market is expected to continue, exerting pressure on prices. In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to show an oscillating trend, with technical support around 6,100 and resistance around 6,300 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene is 6,206 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the main settlement price is 6,217 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The main trading volume is 5,336 lots, down 410 lots; the main open interest is 13,064 lots, up 371 lots. The mainstream prices in different domestic markets have different changes, with some remaining unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of pure benzene in South Korea's FOB middle - price is 736 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars; the CFR middle - price in China is 750.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The spot price in the domestic market is 6,225 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 68.49 US dollars/barrel, up 0.21 US dollars; the CFR middle - price of naphtha in the Japanese region is 584.5 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13%; the weekly output is 45.08 million tons, up 0.56 million tons. The port inventory of pure benzene is 14.4 million tons, down 0.2 million tons. The production cost is 5,327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan/ton; the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton [2]. Downstream Situation - The开工率 of styrene is 78.53%, up 0.35%; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 95.72%, up 6.41%. The capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.54%, down 0.46%; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 69.24%, down 0.1%. The capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 64.3%, up 2 [2]. Industry News - From August 15th to 21st, the profit of PetroChina's benzene was 707 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. As of August 25th, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu was 13.8 million tons, a decrease of 4.17% compared with the previous period [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the impact of the restart of previous petroleum - benzene devices has expanded, with the capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene up 0.98% to 78.99%, while the number of shut - down and load - reducing devices of hydro - benzene in North China has increased, with the capacity utilization rate down 5.03% to 57.69%. On the demand side, the operating rates of pure - benzene downstream industries changed differently last week, with the weighted operating rate of pure - benzene downstream up 0.19% to 78.42%. The inventory of pure benzene in East China ports decreased by 4.17% to 13.8 million tons. This week, petroleum - benzene devices are expected to operate stably, and there are both shut - down and restart devices for hydro - benzene. Overall, the domestic pure - benzene output is expected to change little. The arrival volume of imported pure benzene in East China will increase, and the supply may remain abundant. Terminal demand is insufficient, and all five major downstream industries of pure benzene are in the red, so the consumption of pure benzene may continue to be weak [2]. Cost and Price Forecast - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September has increased, and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine meeting is limited. The international oil price has rebounded recently, but the impact of OPEC+ production increase restricts the upward space of oil prices. In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to show an oscillating trend, with technical support around 6,100 and resistance around 6,300 [2].