瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20250825

Report Summary - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [1] - Report Name: Methanol Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The overall production of methanol has increased slightly as the output of the restored production capacity is more than the loss of the overhaul and production - reduction capacity. The inventory of domestic methanol sample production enterprises has increased, and the order backlog has decreased. The port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The demand side of olefin devices is stable with an expected increase in the industry's operating rate. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2450 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the methanol main contract is 2424 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 price spread is 22 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [2]. - Positions: The main contract holding volume is 675,269 lots, down 22,877 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 104,768 lots [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts is 10,566, down 100 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Domestic Prices: The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2295 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2072.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton. The price spread between East China and Northwest China is 217.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton [2]. - International Prices: CFR China Main Port is 264 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is 322 US dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB Rotterdam is 287 euros/ton, up 3 euros/ton. The price spread between China Main Port and Southeast Asia is - 58 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton [2]. - Basis: The basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 115 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 2.69 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.12 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The inventory in East China ports is 70.62 tons, up 1.92 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 36.98 tons, up 3.5 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises is 310,800 tons, up 15,200 tons [2]. - Import: The import profit is 15 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly import volume is 1.1027 million tons, down 0.1175 million tons [2]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 83.91%, up 1.51 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Operating Rates: The operating rate of formaldehyde is 42.04%, down 0.01 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 7.02%, down 0.13 percentage points; the operating rate of acetic acid is 89.01%, down 2.05 percentage points; the operating rate of MTBE is 63.54%, up 0.15 percentage points; the operating rate of olefins is 84.59%, up 1.47 percentage points [2]. - Profit: The on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 977 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Historical Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 17.22%, down 1.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.59%, up 0.06 percentage points [2]. - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and put options of methanol is 16.59%, down 1.06 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of August 20, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.076 million tons, up 54,200 tons. The inventory in East China and South China has increased [2]. - As of August 20, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 310,800 tons, up 15,200 tons, a 5.15% increase; the order backlog is 207,400 tons, down 12,000 tons, a 5.47% decrease [2]. - As of August 21, the domestic capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefins devices is 85.70%, up 1.45 percentage points [2]. 3.8 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory and port inventory data released by Longzhong on Wednesday [2].