俄乌停火无果，油价或维持震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The oil price fluctuated last week and rebounded slightly in the second half. Although it recorded its first increase in three weeks, the overall increase was relatively limited. In the current market situation, the long - term loosening trend on the supply side in the commodity attribute remains the core factor suppressing the oil price rebound. Although the recent consumption in the US shows resilience and inventory has decreased continuously, its support for the oil price is relatively limited. In terms of financial attributes, after the Jackson Hole meeting, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has almost reached its peak, which may lead to a gradual improvement in macro - economic pressure and open up the upward space for the oil price. Politically, after the US - Russia negotiations, the market's short - term expectation of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has decreased again, and overall political volatility may continue. Therefore, in the near term, the oil price may continue to fluctuate, with a possible short - term rebound but the overall amplitude may be relatively limited [67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, the oil price rebounded slightly in the second half, mainly affected by the Fed's dovish stance and the fruitless Russia - Ukraine negotiations. It is expected that the oil price will fluctuate this week, with a small upward potential. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [470 - 515] yuan/barrel. Operations should focus on short - term spreads, and short - selling at high prices can be cautiously considered. This week, attention should be paid to the speeches of Fed officials, US economic data, and geopolitical trends [13]. 3.2 Market Review - The oil price rebounded in the second half of last week, recording its first increase in three weeks. This was due to two factors: the market's interpretation of Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting as dovish, and the relatively fruitless cease - fire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - economic Factors - Fed's Attitude and Rate - cut Expectations: The minutes of the Fed's July monetary policy meeting showed that most officials believed the threat of persistent high inflation exceeded the risk of a weakening labor market. Although there were differences in opinions among some officials, the market's expectation of a rate cut in September remained as high as 75%. After the Jackson Hole meeting, the market interpreted Powell's speech as dovish, and the probability of a rate cut in September was close to 90% [25]. - US Inflation: US inflation persists, and the core inflation may rebound [28]. - Geopolitical Factors: The US - Russia - Ukraine talks last week did not lead to a cease - fire. Russia's demands were not accepted by Ukraine, and the market's expectation of a cease - fire became more pessimistic, causing the oil price to rebound slightly. In addition, the possible deterioration of US - Venezuela diplomatic relations may affect Venezuela's low - cost energy exports [32]. 3.3.2 Supply - side Factors - Saudi Arabia and Russia's Production Increase: Saudi Arabia and Russia continued to increase production. In July, OPEC +'s total production increased by 335,000 barrels per day compared to June [35]. - Compensatory Production Cuts in Iran and Iraq: Iran and Iraq carried out compensatory production cuts [40]. - Stable Recovery of US Production: US oil production remained stable and showed a recovery trend [43]. 3.3.3 Demand - side Factors - Slight Recovery in Consumption Expectations: There was a slight recovery in consumption expectations [46]. - Contraction in Manufacturing: The manufacturing sectors in the US and China remained in a contraction state [49]. - Change in Refined Oil Production Direction: There was a change in the production direction of refined oil [55]. 3.3.4 Inventory Factors - Limited Support from Crude Oil De - stocking: US crude oil inventories decreased significantly last week, far exceeding market expectations. This was due to the high utilization rate of US refineries and a surge in exports, which weakened the impact of the growth in US shale oil production [57]. - Gasoline Production Cut and Diesel Recovery: US gasoline inventories continued to decline, while refined oil inventories increased. North American refineries were adjusting production policies to shift from prioritizing gasoline to increasing diesel production [61]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - The oil price may continue to fluctuate in the near term, with a possible short - term rebound but the overall amplitude may be relatively limited [67].