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钢矿周报:淡季不利因素影响缓解叠加供给承压且库存压力有限,钢矿期价或震荡偏强-20250825
Chang An Qi Huo·2025-08-25 12:12

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel and iron ore futures prices may fluctuate strongly due to the mitigation of off - season adverse factors, supply pressure, and limited inventory pressure [1][53][55]. - For steel, despite the pressure on macro - economic indicators in July, the end - demand may improve marginally, and supply may be under pressure, so steel futures prices may fluctuate strongly. For iron ore, although demand may be under marginal pressure, it still has resilience, and supply is marginally tight, so iron ore futures prices may also fluctuate strongly [2][3][53][55]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Supply - demand marginally loose and "anti - involution" policy with expected difference, steel and iron ore futures prices fluctuate downwards - Last week, the futures prices of steel and iron ore main contracts fluctuated downwards. The prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore main contracts fell by 2.16%, 2.27%, and 0.77% respectively. The macro - economic data in July showed pressure on the economy, and the supply of steel and iron ore increased significantly, with off - season factors still affecting, resulting in a marginally loose supply - demand situation. Also, the "anti - involution" policy implementation is market - based, and the short - term implementation may fall through, suppressing the bullish sentiment [6]. II. Steel supply - demand marginally tight, iron ore supply under pressure and demand with resilience, the pressure of inventory accumulation for steel and iron ore may be limited (1) Steel: Supply under pressure and demand warming up, futures prices may fluctuate strongly - Terminal demand may show resilience: Although macro - economic indicators in July were under pressure, the end of the "severe flood season" may relieve adverse weather factors, and the implementation of policies and project starts may improve the terminal demand for steel, especially for building materials [8][10][53]. - Supply may be under marginal pressure: Although steel mills' profits are okay, the approaching 9.3 parade may lead to significant production - restriction pressure on steel mills in North China, and the new round of supply - side reform in the steel industry may also limit the supply [26][53]. - Limited pressure of inventory accumulation: Although the expectation of "one - size - fits - all" forced production reduction is reduced and the real demand is still under pressure, the demand - side policies and the resilience of terminal demand may limit the pressure of inventory accumulation for rebar and hot - rolled coil [38]. (2) Iron ore: Demand under marginal pressure but with resilience and limited inventory pressure, futures prices may fluctuate strongly - Demand with marginal pressure but resilience: The upcoming 9.3 parade and the new round of supply - side reform in the steel industry may put marginal pressure on iron ore demand. However, steel mills' profits are okay, and the expectation of "one - size - fits - all" forced production reduction is reduced, so the demand may still have resilience [43][44][55]. - Limited pressure of supply tightness: Although the arrival of foreign ore decreased last week, the foreign ore shipment may return to normal, and the new production capacity of foreign mines and overseas equity mines may increase, so the pressure of supply tightness may be limited [46][47]. - Limited inventory accumulation: Due to the potential production - restriction of steel mills, iron ore demand may be under marginal pressure. But considering the resilience of demand, the accumulation of port inventory may be limited [49][52][55]. III. Mitigation of off - season adverse factors, supply under pressure, and limited inventory pressure, steel and iron ore futures prices may fluctuate strongly - Steel: The end - demand may improve marginally, and supply may be under pressure, so steel futures prices may fluctuate strongly. Steel producers and high - inventory traders are advised to speed up sales, while low - inventory traders and end - users can buy on dips or establish long hedging positions on the futures market. Investors can take short - term long positions on dips, and arbitrageurs can try to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, all with stop - loss and take - profit [2][53]. - Iron ore: Although demand may be under marginal pressure, it still has resilience, and supply is marginally tight, so iron ore futures prices may fluctuate strongly. Steel mills and low - inventory traders can buy on dips or establish long hedging positions on the futures market, while high - inventory traders can speed up sales. Investors can trade within a range, and arbitrageurs can try to go long on the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio, all with stop - loss and take - profit [3][55].