黑色产业链日报-20250825
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-08-25 13:49
- Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document about the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The macro - environment is generally favorable for commodities. Overseas, Powell's dovish signal strengthens the market's interest - rate cut expectation, and the July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI exceeds expectations. Domestically, although the July domestic demand data is still weak, the market's pessimistic expectation of deflation has changed. However, the fundamentals of both raw materials and finished products are weakening, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. Overall, the steel market is expected to show a range - bound pattern [3]. - The supply of iron ore first increases and then stabilizes. The high demand for hot metal is maintained, but the downstream terminal demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the premium retracement supports the iron ore price. In the short term, the iron ore price is expected to be mainly range - bound [18]. - The details of the "anti - involution" policy need time to be introduced, and the macro - sentiment may fluctuate. The far - month production of coking coal may be restricted by over - production inspections and the 276 - working - day policy. The current main contract has a large open interest, and the long - short game is intense. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished product demand in the peak season, the production changes of coking coal mines, and the implementation effect of macro - policies [30]. - Driven by profit, the production of ferroalloys is gradually increasing, reaching a high level in the same period of the past five years, with great supply pressure. With the production restrictions on some steel mills before the parade and no obvious improvement in demand, the ferroalloy inventory may change from destocking to stocking. The price of ferroalloys is affected by the price of coking coal, and in the long - term, the valuation trend of coking coal is upward, but the short - term fluctuation is intense [48]. - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues. The demand for soda ash is expected to be weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory continues to reach a new high. The cost of raw salt and coal has increased. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand for soda ash remains unchanged [57]. - The near - end trading of glass returns to the industry. After Hubei reduces the price, the production and sales situation improves. The policy expectation fluctuates, and the market sentiment also fluctuates. The supply of glass is stable, and the cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 7%. The mid - stream inventory is at a high level, and the spot negative feedback continues. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [83]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Macro and Fundamental Analysis: Overseas macro - drivers are upward, and domestic deflation pessimism has changed. However, steel has a high - supply pressure with super - seasonal inventory accumulation. Raw material fundamentals are weakening, but the overall inventory of finished products is not high, and the total demand is acceptable. The market is expected to be range - bound [3]. - Price Data: On August 25, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3224, 3261, and 3138 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3377, 3388, and 3389 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - Spot Price and Basis: The rebar summary price in China on August 25, 2025, was 3354 yuan/ton, and the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 86 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 53 yuan/ton [8]. Iron Ore - Supply - Demand and Price Outlook: Supply first increases and then stabilizes, demand for hot metal is high but terminal demand is weak with inventory accumulation. Coking coal supply supports the price. In the short term, the price is expected to be range - bound [18]. - Price Data: On August 25, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 787, 763, and 806.5 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Rizhao PB powder was 780 yuan/ton [19]. - Fundamental Data: On August 22, 2025, the daily average hot - metal output was 240.75 tons, the 45 - port port clearance volume was 325.74 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 13845.2 tons [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The "anti - involution" policy details are pending, and the macro - sentiment may fluctuate. The far - month production of coking coal may be restricted. The main contract has a large open interest, and the long - short game is intense. Attention should be paid to multiple factors [30]. - Price and Basis Data: On August 25, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost in Tangshan (Meng 5) was 1128 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis was - 88 yuan/ton. The coke warehouse - receipt cost in Rizhao Port (wet - quenched) was 1616 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis was - 120.4 yuan/ton [35]. - Spot Price and Profit: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1470 yuan/ton, and the immediate coking profit was 397 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloys - Market Situation: Driven by profit, production is increasing, with high supply pressure. With production restrictions on steel mills and no obvious demand improvement, inventory may change from destocking to stocking. The price is affected by coking coal [48]. - Data of Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: On August 25, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 8 yuan/ton, and the ferromanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 268 yuan/ton [49][51]. Soda Ash - Market Analysis: Supply is expected to remain high, demand is weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory is at a new high. The cost of raw salt and coal has increased, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [57]. - Price Data: On August 25, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1393 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread was 167 yuan/ton [58]. - Spot Price: The heavy - soda market price in North China was 1350 yuan/ton, and the heavy - soda to light - soda price difference was 100 yuan/ton [62]. Glass - Market Analysis: The near - end trading returns to the industry. After Hubei reduces the price, production and sales improve. Policy expectations and market sentiment fluctuate. Supply is stable, and the cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 7%. The mid - stream inventory is high, and the spot negative feedback continues [83]. - Price and Month - Spread Data: On August 25, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1280 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread was 281 yuan/ton [84]. - Production and Sales Data: On August 24, 2025, the production and sales rate in Shahe was 110%, and in Hubei was 131% [85].