铝产业链周报：氧化铝：短期维持窄幅震荡，中期过剩格局不改，电解铝：宏观扰动频繁，消费边际改善累库放缓，铝合金：税收政策扰动供应趋紧叠加进口减量明显，周度市场去库-20250825

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Alumina is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term, with a mid - term oversupply situation. It is advisable to go short at high prices in the mid - term, with a short - term operating range of 3000 - 3300 yuan/ton [2][7]. - Electrolytic aluminum prices are likely to oscillate in the short - term, with a reference range of 20000 - 21000 yuan/ton. There is a risk of the price rising and then falling if demand does not improve [7]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are predicted to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. The spot price is expected to remain firm, and the price difference with aluminum is likely to converge, with a reference operating range of 19600 - 20400 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review (8.18 - 8.22) - Alumina prices were weak this week due to inventory accumulation and rising warehouse receipts. With narrowing profits, cost support is strong, and the price is expected to oscillate narrowly next week [10]. - Electrolytic aluminum prices oscillated narrowly. Overseas interest - rate cut expectations cooled, while domestic policies provided support. Supply increased slowly, costs decreased slightly, and demand was the core issue. High prices restricted short - term purchases, but inventory accumulation slowed down [10]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices also oscillated narrowly. The market improved marginally, with social inventory decreasing for the first time since mid - April. Tight scrap aluminum supply supported costs, and some factories reduced production due to tax policy adjustments. Demand was structurally differentiated, and orders showed signs of improvement [10]. 2. Macroeconomic and Terminal Demand - US employment data in July was worse than expected, and previous data was revised down significantly. The labor market cooled significantly. The probability of a September interest - rate cut increased to 93.4% due to relatively mild inflation pressure [13][17][18]. - China's core CPI in July increased year - on - year to 0.8%, indicating continuous recovery of domestic demand. The PMI in July was 49.3%, a 0.4% decrease from the previous month, mainly affected by the traditional off - season and extreme weather [24][30]. - Real estate sales weakened on a weekly basis. From January to July, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises decreased by 9.2% year - on - year. New construction and investment are expected to continue to decline in 2025 [36][40]. - China's automobile production and sales data in July were strong. From January to July, production and sales increased by 12.7% and 12% respectively year - on - year. The inventory warning index improved, indicating better market sentiment [41][45]. 3. Industry Supply - Demand Fundamentals Aluminum Bauxite - In July, imports increased by 10.7% month - on - month. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on imports will gradually emerge. Domestic production is relatively stable, with limited short - term supply increase [47][50]. - Domestic bauxite prices remained stable this week, while the import bulk market had few transactions. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and the pressure of barge transportation is expected to appear at the end of the month [51][61]. Alumina - In July, the profitability improved, and production increased by 5.4% month - on - month. The operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August. The market is in a stock - piling trend, with inventory accumulating in factories and warehouse receipts increasing [62][66][68]. Electrolytic Aluminum - In July, production increased by 3.1% month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreased significantly. The operating capacity in Yunnan increased due to capacity replacement. Net imports increased in July but are expected to decline slightly in August [72][76][84]. - This week, the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises showed signs of recovery, mainly due to new orders in the automotive and photovoltaic sectors. The short - term inventory still has the expectation of accumulation, and the weekly social inventory increased by 0.8 tons, with a slower rate of accumulation [85][91][94]. - From January to July, the cumulative export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.5% year - on - year [96]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - In July, scrap aluminum production increased by 3.4% month - on - month, and the prices of domestic and imported scrap aluminum were firm. The industry's operating rate was 53.0% this week, with increased differentiation. The import volume in July reached a four - year low and is expected to remain low in August [99][109][110]. - The weekly inventory accumulation of cast aluminum alloy slowed down. The price is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation, with cost support and marginal improvement in demand during the off - peak to peak season transition [117][121].