Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port continued to decline, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction. Overseas goods arriving at the port for warehousing decreased, while downstream tire companies had a positive purchasing sentiment, and warehouse shipments were better than expected. - Last week, the domestic tire production capacity utilization rate increased, but this week, it may decline slightly due to factors such as high - temperature weather and limited overall orders. Some enterprises may adjust production schedules or conduct maintenance at the end of the month, dragging down the overall production capacity utilization rate. - The RU2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,650 - 16,200 in the short - term, and the NR2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,650 - 13,000 in the short - term. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 15,905 yuan/ton, up 265 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 12,785 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan. - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 105 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,115 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 132,930 lots, up 1,723 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 57,206 lots, up 2,876 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 32,531 lots, up 3,267 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 7,221 lots, up 1,111 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 178,470 tons, down 40 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 44,655 tons. [2] 现货市场 - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 202 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 14,800 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,805 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 975 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 1,025 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 12,873 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 357 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) was 61.55 Thai baht/kg, up 1.55 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) was 57.6 Thai baht/kg, up 0.37 Thai baht. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) was 55 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) was 49.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.3 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 235 US dollars/ton, up 19.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 37.8 US dollars/ton, up 4.6 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 12.19 million tons, up 0.1 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 25.95 million tons, down 2.13 million tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.76%, up 1.67 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.13%, up 1.06 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 39.76 days, up 0.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 47.05 days, up 0.32 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 19.62%, down 0.91 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.34%, up 0.21 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.71%, up 0.22 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.7%, up 0.21 percentage points. [2] Industry News - In the first week of August 24 - 30, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, heavy rainfall in some areas increased the impact on tapping; in the southern hemisphere, rainfall in most areas was low, slightly reducing the impact on tapping. - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.71%. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decline of 4.70%; the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decline of 1.28%. - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. [2]
天然橡胶产业日报-20250825
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-25 15:08