广发期货《黑色》日报-20250825

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel data shows signs of bottoming out and rebounding but remains at an off - season level. August demand declined significantly, mainly due to poor rebar demand, which widened the coil - rebar spread to around 290. The market is still weak this week, with steel prices falling. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the peak seasons of September - October. Considering demand and coking coal supply, steel is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern. It is recommended to try long positions [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Last week, the 2601 iron ore contract showed a weak and volatile trend, with a rebound on Friday night. Fundamentally, the global iron ore shipment volume increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports also rose. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to continue to increase. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin is at a relatively high level, the maintenance volume decreased slightly, and the hot metal output remained high. However, the downstream apparent demand decreased, and steel prices were weak. In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, the port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory decreased. After the Tangshan steel mill's 15 - day production restriction starting from August 20, the hot metal output will decline, and the restocking demand will weaken. But after the short - term production restriction, the hot metal output will rebound, and the basis of the 09 contract will be repaired, which will support the futures price. It is recommended to go long at low prices and conduct a 1 - 5 long - short spread arbitrage [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Last week, the coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, with a rebound at the end of Friday. The spot auction price declined slightly, and the Mongolian coal price was weak. On the supply side, coal mine production increased, but sales slowed down, and some mines started to reduce prices. Imported coal prices also fell, and downstream restocking was cautious. On the demand side, coking plant production increased slightly, and the downstream blast furnace hot metal output fluctuated at a high level, but the restocking demand slowed down. Considering the production restriction of Tangshan steel mills before the parade, the hot metal output will decline in late August. The overall inventory is slightly lower at a medium level. The spot market is stable but weak. The near - month contract has support as the futures price is lower than the warehouse receipt cost, and the 9 - 1 spread has a narrowing trend. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 coking coal contract and conduct a long - coking - coal short - coke spread arbitrage [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3300 yuan/ton to 3280 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar decreased from 3239 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price remained unchanged at 3020 yuan/ton, and the slab price was 3730 yuan/ton without change. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan/ton to 3345 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 3185 yuan/ton. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions generally declined [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot metal output was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons. The output of five major steel products increased by 6.4 tons to 878.1 tons, with the rebar output decreasing by 5.8 tons to 214.7 tons and the hot - rolled coil output increasing by 9.7 tons to 325.2 tons. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 25.1 tons to 1441.0 tons, the rebar inventory increased by 19.8 tons to 607.0 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.0 tons to 361.4 tons [1]. Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased slightly, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreasing from 800.0 yuan/ton to 792.3 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 contract for different iron ore powders increased, and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads changed to different extents [3]. Iron Ore Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 94.7 tons to 2476.6 tons, and the global shipment volume increased by 359.9 tons to 3406.6 tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 tons to 10462.3 tons. On the demand side, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons, the 45 - port daily average clearance volume decreased by 8.9 tons to 325.7 tons, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [3]. Iron Ore Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 11.2 tons to 13845.2 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 70.9 tons to 9065.5 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 days to 20.0 days [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke changed to different extents. The 09 and 01 contracts of coke and coking coal increased, and the basis and spreads also changed. The coking plant profit decreased, and the sample coal mine profit decreased slightly [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons. The raw coal and clean coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons, and the coke output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 tons, a slight increase of 0.1 tons [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Inventory - The total coke inventory increased slightly, with the all - sample coking plant's coke inventory increasing, the 247 steel mills' coke inventory slightly decreasing, and the port inventory slightly decreasing. The coking coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased, the all - sample coking plant's coking coal inventory decreased, and the 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory increased [5].