《特殊商品》日报-20250825

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content was found in the provided reports. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - The current market lacks a clear directional guide, with a mix of long and short factors. Prices are mainly fluctuating within a range, with the 01 contract's reference range being 15,000 - 16,500. Follow-up attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation during the peak production season in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply is smooth, consider shorting at high levels [1]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is trending weakly following its own fundamental logic. The overall demand has no growth expectation, and the inventory may face further pressure. It is recommended to try shorting at high levels. - Glass has a weak demand in the deep - processing sector, and the industry needs to clear excess capacity. The short - selling logic on the disk is not over, and previous high - level short positions can be held [3]. Logs - The log futures are expected to fluctuate between 800 - 850. It is recommended to mainly go long at low levels with reference to the 01 contract [4]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon fluctuates widely. The cost center is expected to rise, and there are expectations of capacity clearance. It is recommended to try going long at low levels, with the main price fluctuation range being 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon is still facing inventory accumulation pressure. It is expected to mainly fluctuate at high levels, with the price range's lower limit rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit being 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try going long at low levels and consider buying put options to short at high levels when volatility is low [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 150 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.01%. The whole - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 55 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.98%. - The price of Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged, and the non - standard price difference increased by 8.48% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 45 yuan/ton, a rise of 4.50%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton, a decline of 5.26%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.65% [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, Thailand's production increased by 44.23%, Indonesia's decreased by 12.03%, India's increased by 30.82%, and China's increased by 6.80%. - The weekly operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires increased. In July, domestic tire production decreased by 8.16%, while tire exports increased by 10.51%. - In June, the total import volume of natural rubber increased by 2.21%. In July, the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 5.00% [1]. Inventory Changes - The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.89%, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 10.02%. The inflow and outflow rates of dry rubber in Qingdao changed [1]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract increased by 1.36%, and the glass 2509 contract increased by 1.42%. The 05 basis decreased by 151.8% [3]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 1.25%, and the soda ash 2509 contract increased by 1.32%. The 05 basis decreased by 141.67% [3]. Supply - The operating rate of soda ash increased by 1.33%, and the weekly output increased by 1.33%. The daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass remained unchanged [3]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 0.28%, the soda ash factory inventory increased by 0.89%, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased by 6.37%. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories remained unchanged [3]. Real Estate Data (YoY) - The new construction area increased by 0.09%, the construction area decreased by 2.43%, the completion area decreased by 0.03%, and the sales area decreased by 6.50% [3]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures prices generally declined. The prices of various specifications of spot logs in ports remained mostly unchanged, and the outer - disk quotes remained unchanged [4]. Supply - The port shipping volume decreased by 1.51%, and the number of congested ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 11.32% [4]. Inventory - As of August 15, the national total inventory of coniferous logs was 3.06 million cubic meters, showing a continuous decline. The inventory in Shandong decreased by 3.74%, and that in Jiangsu increased by 5.95% [4]. Demand - As of August 15, the average daily log delivery volume was 63,300 cubic meters, remaining basically flat [4]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China's oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged. The basis of different specifications changed, with some decreasing significantly [5]. Monthly Spread - The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 20.00%, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 1.45%, etc. [5]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon production increased by 3.23%, and the operating rate increased by 2.47%. The production and operating rates of different regions changed. The production of organic silicon DMC decreased by 4.54%, while that of polysilicon increased by 5.10% [5]. Inventory Changes - The inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factories increased slightly, while the social inventory decreased by 0.37%, and the order inventory decreased by 0.23% [5]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average prices of N - type polysilicon raw materials remained unchanged, while the prices of N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components increased slightly. The N - type material basis increased by 4.94% [6]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The main contract decreased by 0.24%. The monthly spreads between different contracts changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [6]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - The weekly silicon wafer production increased by 1.57%, and the polysilicon production decreased by 0.68%. The monthly polysilicon production increased by 5.10%, and the import volume increased by 47.48% [6]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 2.89%, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 12.07% [6].