广发期货《农产品》日报-20250825

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - Palm Oil: The upward space of Malaysian palm oil is expected to be limited by concerns over production growth and potential slowdown in export growth in the second half of the month. Domestic palm oil futures may strengthen again and are expected to rise to the 9800 - 10000 yuan range around the end of the month, but there is a risk of ending the upward trend. In September, there is a risk of a downward trend due to increased production and inventory in Malaysia [1]. - Soybean Oil: The market expects the US EPA to rule on the backlog of biofuel exemption applications from small refineries. Partial approvals are positive for biodiesel demand, leading to a rebound in CBOT soybean oil. In China, downstream consumption increases in late August, and if domestic soybean oil futures decline due to external market factors, the basis quote may rise further [1]. - Corn: In the short term, the corn market has a loose supply - demand situation, with the futures price at a low level. However, the decline may be limited or there may be a slight rebound as new - season corn has not fully entered the market. In the medium term, the cost of new - season corn is expected to decrease, and with stable or increased production, there will be significant supply pressure in the fourth quarter [2]. - Meal: The cost of imported soybeans remains high. Canadian rapeseed supply to China is tight, and aquaculture demand is expected to increase. Although there are concerns about future import pressure, the cost of domestic meal still has strong support, and the downward space for domestic meal is limited [6]. - Hogs: The spot price of hogs remains stable with small fluctuations. Consumption is driven by the start of school and cooler weather in the north. There is a short - term positive impact on the futures market, but there may be a concentrated slaughter before the double festivals, and the near - term market is volatile. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying far - month contracts below 14000 yuan [8]. - Sugar: The international raw sugar market is under pressure from expected supply increases, but there is a risk of lower production in Brazil. It is expected to consolidate in the 15 - 17 cents/pound range in the short term. The domestic sugar futures market is strong, but the spot market is resistant to high prices. With an expected increase in imports, the price has limited upward potential and is expected to fluctuate narrowly [13]. - Cotton: The tight old - crop inventory and lower import data in July support the cotton price. However, with the upcoming new - season cotton harvest and expected stable or increased production, the short - term price may fluctuate within a range, and the price will face pressure after the new cotton is on the market [14]. - Eggs: The supply of eggs is generally sufficient, and the release of cold - stored eggs will increase the supply pressure. The downstream market has slow digestion, and traders are cautious. The egg price is expected to be bearish [17]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil - Price Changes: On August 22, the price of domestic 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9620 yuan, down 80 yuan from the previous day. The futures price of P2601 was 9510 yuan, up 74 yuan. The basis decreased significantly [1]. - Market Factors: Exports support Malaysian palm oil, but production growth and inventory increase are potential negatives. In China, consumption and market sentiment affect the price [1]. Soybean Oil - Price Changes: On August 22, the price of domestic first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was 8690 yuan, up 30 yuan. The futures price of Y2601 was 8492 yuan, up 70 yuan [1]. - Market Factors: The US EPA's decision on biofuel exemptions and domestic consumption during the school - opening and festival - preparation periods affect the price [1]. Corn - Price Changes: On August 22, the price of corn in Jinzhou Port was 2175 - 2240 yuan/ton, with a slight change. The futures price of corn starch 2511 was 2498 yuan, up 14 yuan [2]. - Market Factors: Supply increases due to more vehicles at deep - processing plants and import auctions. Demand is cautious as enterprises wait for new - season corn [2]. Meal - Price Changes: On August 22, the price of soybean meal in Jiangsu was 3050 yuan, down 20 yuan. The price of rapeseed meal in Jiangsu was 2540 yuan, down 20 yuan [6]. - Market Factors: The yield outlook of US soybeans, the supply of Canadian rapeseed, and domestic import pressure affect the price [6]. Hogs - Price Changes: On August 22, the price of the main hog futures contract was 13840 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. The spot price in different regions had small fluctuations [8]. - Market Factors: Consumption changes, market sentiment, and potential concentrated slaughter before festivals affect the price [8]. Sugar - Price Changes: On August 22, the price of domestic white sugar 2601 was 5670 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan. The international ICE raw sugar price was 16.44 cents/pound, up 0.08 cents [13]. - Market Factors: International supply expectations, Brazilian production conditions, and domestic import expectations affect the price [13]. Cotton - Price Changes: On August 22, the price of domestic cotton 2509 was 13760 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The international ICE cotton price was 68.00 cents/pound, up 0.53 cents [14]. - Market Factors: Old - crop inventory, import data, and new - season production expectations affect the price [14]. Eggs - Price Changes: On August 22, the price of the egg 09 contract was 2920 yuan/500KG, up 41 yuan. The egg产区 price was 3.18 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan [17]. - Market Factors: Sufficient supply and slow downstream digestion lead to a bearish price trend [17].