建信期货棉花日报-20250826

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - Cotton [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Powell's dovish speech boosts market expectations for a September interest rate cut, and the weakening US dollar index boosts the performance of the commodity market. The short - term external market is difficult to break out of the range - bound pattern. In the domestic market, the Xinjiang cotton area is in the boll - opening and flocculation stage, and the new cotton purchase is awaited for guidance. The speculation of interest rate cuts and the expectation of a buying spree boosts the price of Zhengzhou cotton, and attention should be paid to the performance of the previous high pressure [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Conditions: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and closed higher. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 1,5240 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market had fair recent transactions, with increased downstream restocking purchases, but overall it was still average. Cotton yarn prices were strong and rising steadily. The demand for cotton grey cloth had not improved significantly, and the fabric mills' shipment speed did not continue to accelerate [7]. - Market Analysis: Overseas, the weekly US cotton export sales data weakened, the drought coverage rate in major cotton - growing areas increased, and the CFTC fund net long position remained at a low level. In the domestic market, there were rumors of more pre - sales of new cotton, and the expectation of a buying spree at the time of listing had increased, but the expected stable and increasing output also brought pressure in the long - term. The finished cotton yarn inventory continued to decline slightly, and the fabric mills' shipments were not as good as those of the yarn mills [8]. 3.2 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission announced matters related to the application for the processing trade import quota of preferential tariff rates outside the cotton tariff quota in 2025. The total quota for the sliding - scale duty processing trade of cotton imports in 2025 was 200,000 tons, and it would be issued on a contract - based application basis. As of August 21, the number of deliverable No. 2 cotton futures contracts on ICE was 15,474 bales. As of August 19, 2025, the net long position rate of ICE cotton futures funds was - 23.56% (a week - on - week increase of 0.09 percentage points) [9][10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including those on the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, various cotton futures spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rate data such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [17][18][26]