建信期货豆粕日报-20250826

Report Information - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The mid - term view on domestic soybean meal is to be bullish after corrections. The cost of imported soybeans in the fourth quarter is likely to rise steadily due to factors such as the possible increase in the marginal price of Brazilian soybeans, the potential import gap, and the blocked import of Canadian rapeseed. Although the current situation of soybean pods in the US is in line with the high - yield forecast of USDA, the weather still has variables, and the weather topic still exists. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Data: For domestic soybean meal futures contracts, the prices of contracts such as bean粕2601, bean粕2509, and bean粕2511 all increased. The trading volume and changes in open interest varied among different contracts. The foreign - market US soybean futures contracts rose, with the main contract at 1055 cents. [6] - US Situation: The ProFarmer crop field survey shows that the number of soybean pods in most major US producing areas is historically high, which is in line with USDA's high - yield forecast. However, about 9% of the US soybean area is currently in drought, much higher than 3% last week, and the rainfall in most major producing areas is expected to be low in the next two weeks. [6] - Domestic Situation: Domestic soybean meal showed a trend of rising and then falling last week, affected by rumors of Sino - US contacts and the downward adjustment of Brazilian premium quotes. In the medium term, with the 23% tariff on imported US soybeans unchanged, China will mainly import Brazilian soybeans in the fourth quarter, supplemented by some from Argentina, and there may be a small import gap to be filled by state - reserve auctions. [6] 3.2 Industry News - ProFarmer predicts that the average corn yield in the US will reach a record 182.7 bushels per acre, with a total output of 16.204 billion bushels; the average soybean yield is also expected to reach a record 53.0 bushels per acre, with a total output of 4.246 billion bushels. The US EPA approved 63 full - exemption applications and 77 partial - exemption applications, rejected 28 small - refinery exemption requests, and plans to issue a supplementary proposal for the 2026 - 2027 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO). [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given content. [12][14][15]