大越期货燃料油早报-20250826

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the fuel oil industry is a combination of multiple factors, with a neutral to mixed stance considering various aspects such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [3]. Core Viewpoints - The impact of the Russian refinery attack persists, keeping high - sulfur fuel oil prices at a high level. In Zhoushan, the North Asian bunkering center, tight barge schedules and moderate low - sulfur fuel oil demand are expected to boost valuations in the short term. High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain strong, while low - sulfur fuel oil may also see some support as the spot market's buying interest for September - loaded cargoes increases. The expected price ranges are 2890 - 2940 for FU2510 and 3540 - 3580 for LU2511 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The Russian Novoshakhtinsk refinery was attacked by drones, with a fire lasting four days as of Sunday. The refinery has an annual processing capacity of 5 million tons of oil (about 100,000 barrels per day). The market structure of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil strengthened on August 25 due to expected tighter arbitrage supply in the coming weeks and tight barge operation berths in Singapore. The stable downstream bunker demand supports the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil fundamentals, but the weakening power generation demand in the Middle East may lead to increased exports and regional inventory accumulation [3]. - The basis for Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is - 20 yuan/ton, and for low - sulfur fuel oil is 70 yuan/ton, with the spot at par with the futures [3]. - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of August 20 was 23.919 million barrels, an increase of 1.28 million barrels [3]. - The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat [3]. - High - sulfur fuel oil's main position has changed from short to long, while low - sulfur fuel oil's main position has increased short positions [3]. 2. Multi - Short Focus - Bullish factors include the possible intensification of sanctions against Russia [4]. - Bearish factors are the unproven optimistic demand and the weak upstream crude oil prices. The market is driven by the resonance of geopolitical risks on the supply side and neutral demand [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - The Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil price is 390.52 US dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil price is 489.5 US dollars/ton [3]. - The daily changes in futures prices show that the FU main contract futures price increased from 2767 to 2878 (a 4.01% increase), and the LU main contract futures price increased from 3467 to 3521 (a 1.56% increase) [5]. - The daily changes in spot prices show that the prices of various fuel oils in different regions all had small increases, with the increase range from 0.75% to 1.31% [6]. 4. Spread Data - Not provided in the content. 5. Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory data from June 4 to August 13 shows fluctuations, with an increase of 1.28 million barrels in the week of August 20 [3][8].