沪锌期货早报-20250826

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures fluctuate and rise, closing with a positive line, increased trading volume, and both long and short positions increasing, with the short side increasing slightly more. Overall, it was a volume - increasing rise. The price increase led to a slow entry of long positions, while the short side actively increased positions. Therefore, the market may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term. Technically, the price closed above the 60 - day moving average, with stronger support from the moving average; the short - term indicator KDJ rose and operated in the weak area; the trend indicator rose, with the long - side strength increasing and the short - side strength decreasing, and the long - and short - side forces began to be in a stalemate. The operation suggestion is that the Shanghai zinc ZN2510 will fluctuate and consolidate [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. In April, global zinc plate production was 1.0722 million tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is a positive factor [2]. - The spot price was 22,340, and the basis was - 55, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On August 22, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,300 tons to 68,075 tons compared with the previous day. On August 25, the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 2,403 tons to 35,194 tons compared with the previous day, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a fluctuating and rising trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is a negative factor [2]. - The main positions were net short, with long positions turning to short, which is a negative factor [2]. 2. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on August 25 - For different delivery months of zinc futures, there were various price changes, trading volumes, and position changes. For example, for the 2510 contract, the previous settlement was 22,245, the opening price was 22,220, the highest price was 22,465, the lowest price was 22,200, the closing price was 22,395, the settlement reference price was 22,355, the price increase was 150 (or 110 in another measure), the trading volume was 131,380 lots, the trading value was 1.46859574 billion yuan, and the open interest was 105,259 lots, a decrease of 2,533 lots [3]. 3. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on August 25 - The price of zinc concentrate in Chenzhou was 17,010 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot in Shanghai was 22,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet in China was 4,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe in China was 4,492 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,440 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou was 7,726 yuan/ton, with no change [4]. 4. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics in Main National Markets (August 14 - August 25, 2025) - The total zinc ingot inventory in main national markets increased from 109,900 tons on August 14 to 124,800 tons on August 25. Compared with August 18, it increased by 9,700 tons, and compared with August 21, it increased by 7,400 tons [5]. 5. Zinc Warrant Report of Futures Exchange on August 25 - The total zinc warrants of the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 35,194 tons, an increase of 2,403 tons compared with the previous day. Different regions and warehouses had different changes in warrants. For example, in Guangdong, the total warrants were 18,522 tons, an increase of 2,401 tons; in Tianjin, the total warrants were 16,672 tons, an increase of 2 tons [6]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on August 25 - The LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,300 tons to 68,075 tons, with registered warrants of 41,825 tons, unregistered warrants of 26,250 tons, and the unregistered warrant ratio was 38.56% [7]. 7. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on August 25 - No specific price data was provided in the text, only the title was given. 8. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on August 25 - The prices of zinc ingots from different smelters all increased by 110 yuan/ton. For example, the price of 0 zinc ingot from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter was 22,580 yuan/ton; from Sanniu Huludao Zinc Industry was 22,640 yuan/ton; from Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan was 22,310 yuan/ton; from Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium was 22,010 yuan/ton; from Henan Yuguang Gold & Lead was 22,350 yuan/ton; from Gansu Baiyin Non - ferrous was 22,055 yuan/ton [13]. 9. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production value in June was 459,700 tons, the actual production was 471,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and a 2.63% increase compared with the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production in July was 470,300 tons [15]. 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on August 25 - Different regions had different zinc concentrate processing fees. For example, in Baoshan, the processing fee for 50% zinc concentrate was between 3,700 and 3,900 yuan/metal ton; in Huludao, it was between 3,900 and 4,100 yuan/metal ton [17]. 11. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on August 25 - In the trading volume ranking of the zn2510 contract, CITIC Futures had the highest trading volume of 35,312 lots, an increase of 11,932 lots compared with the previous day. In the long - position ranking, CITIC Futures had 15,259 lots, a decrease of 101 lots compared with the previous day. In the short - position ranking, CITIC Futures had 12,073 lots, an increase of 627 lots compared with the previous day [18].