大越期货天胶早报-20250826

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to rise, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support below, and short - long trading is recommended [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution. Negative factors include increased supply and negative domestic economic indicators [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, with a neutral fundamental situation. The basis is - 1055, showing a bearish signal. The inventory situation is mixed, with the exchange inventory decreasing week - on - week and year - on - year, and the Qingdao area inventory decreasing week - on - week but increasing year - on - year. The price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish. The main position is net short with a reduction in shorts, showing a bearish signal. Short - long trading is expected due to market support below [4]. 2. Fundamental Data - Supply: Supply is increasing [4][6]. - Demand: Downstream consumption is high [6]. - Price: On August 25, the spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased, and the US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is available. The basis weakened on August 25 [8][35]. - Inventory: The exchange inventory and Qingdao area inventory have had small changes recently. The exchange inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year [4][14][17]. - Import: Import volume has rebounded [20]. - Downstream Consumption: Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, tire production reached a new high in the same period but decreased month - on - month, and tire industry exports have rebounded [23][26][29][32]. 3. Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Positive Factors: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - Negative Factors: Increased supply and negative domestic economic indicators [6].