棉花早报-20250826

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract 01 shows signs of stabilizing and starting to rise after a short - term battle around 14,000. Optimistic expectations may prevail regarding whether the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season will be prosperous. If it can stabilize above 14,000, the probability of subsequent volatile upward movement increases [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No content related to the previous day's review is provided in the report. 2. Daily Hints - Fundamentals: According to the ICAC August report, the 2025/26 cotton production is 25.9 million tons and consumption is 25.6 million tons. The USDA August report shows that the 2025/26 production is 25.392 million tons, consumption is 25.688 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%; cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture's August forecast for the 2025/26 season is a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons, presenting a neutral situation [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,235 yuan, with a basis of 1,115 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for China's ending inventory in the 2025/26 season in August is 8.23 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear; still bullish [4]. 3. Today's Focus - No content related to today's focus is provided in the report. 4. Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: Data on production, consumption, imports, exports, and ending inventory of major cotton - producing and consuming countries from 2021/22 to 2024/25 (July and August statistics) are presented, along with monthly adjustments, year - on - year percentages, and year - on - year changes [9][10]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, global production is 2.59 million tons (+400,000 tons, +1.6%), consumption is 2.56 million tons (basically flat), ending inventory is 1.71 million tons (+260,000 tons, +1.6%), global trade volume is 970,000 tons (+360,000 tons, +3.9%), and the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [11]. - Ministry of Agriculture's China Cotton Forecast: For the 2025/26 season, the estimated beginning inventory is 8.01 million tons, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be in the range of 75 - 100 cents per pound [13]. 5. Position Data - No content related to position data is provided in the report.