大越期货油脂早报-20250826

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations ease and affect the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,568, and the basis is 80, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - Main position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,250 - 8,650 [2] Daily Views - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. The export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,638, and the basis is 56, indicating a neutral situation [3] - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - Main position: The main palm oil contract has shifted from long to short [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 [3] Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. The export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,006, and the basis is 115, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish factors: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and there is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - Bearish factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]