大越期货纯碱早报-20250826

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. The short - term outlook is expected to be mainly volatile and weak [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, while photovoltaic daily melting volume drops significantly, terminal demand weakens, and soda ash factory inventory is at a historical high; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,220 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,337 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 117 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot; bearish [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; bearish [2][36]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - Expectation: Due to the strong supply and weak demand in the soda ash fundamentals, it is expected to be mainly volatile and weak in the short term [2]. 2. Influence Factors Summary - Bullish factors: The peak summer overhaul season is coming, and production will decline [3]. - Bearish factors: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, with industry production at a historical high; downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda has cut production, weakening the demand for soda ash; the positive sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has subsided [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,326 yuan/ton | 1,220 yuan/ton | - 106 yuan | | Current Value | 1,337 yuan/ton | 1,220 yuan/ton | - 117 yuan | | Change Rate | 0.83% | 0.00% | 10.38% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 48.10 yuan/ton, and the profit by the East China co - production process is - 58 yuan/ton, with the soda ash production profit rising from a historical low [15]. - Operating rate and production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 88.48%, and the seasonal decline in the operating rate is delayed. The weekly production of soda ash is 771,400 tons, including 425,200 tons of heavy soda ash, with production at a historical high [18][20]. - Industry capacity changes: In 2023, the new soda ash production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - Soda ash production and sales rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 97.80% [24]. - Downstream demand: The national float glass daily melting volume is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.34%. The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry cuts production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [27][33]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.9108 million tons, an increase of 0.90% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [36]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity | Production | Operating Rate | Imports | Exports | Net Imports | Apparent Supply | Total Demand | Supply - Demand Gap | Capacity Growth Rate | Production Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 30.35 million tons | 27.15 million tons | 89.46% | 140,000 tons | 1.52 million tons | - 1.38 million tons | 25.77 million tons | 25.17 million tons | 600,000 tons | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 30.87 million tons | 25.83 million tons | 83.57% | 290,000 tons | 1.38 million tons | - 1.09 million tons | 24.74 million tons | 25.23 million tons | - 490,000 tons | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 32.47 million tons | 28.04 million tons | 86.36% | 190,000 tons | 1.44 million tons | - 1.25 million tons | 26.79 million tons | 26.31 million tons | 480,000 tons | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 33.17 million tons | 27.57 million tons | 73.40% | 360,000 tons | 1.38 million tons | - 1.02 million tons | 26.55 million tons | 26.07 million tons | 480,000 tons | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 32.88 million tons | 28.92 million tons | 71.90% | 230,000 tons | 730,000 tons | - 500,000 tons | 28.42 million tons | 27.64 million tons | 780,000 tons | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 31.14 million tons | 29.44 million tons | 85.26% | 110,000 tons | 2.06 million tons | - 1.95 million tons | 27.49 million tons | 29.13 million tons | - 1.64 million tons | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 33.42 million tons | 32.28 million tons | 87.76% | 820,000 tons | 1.44 million tons | - 620,000 tons | 31.66 million tons | 31.55 million tons | 110,000 tons | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 39.30 million tons | 36.50 million tons | 78.20% | 420,000 tons | 1.56 million tons | - 1.14 million tons | 35.36 million tons | 33.79 million tons | 1.57 million tons | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [37]