大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250826

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: August 26, 2025 - Company: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Analyst: Jin Zebin [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend today, influenced by factors such as cost support, potential anti - involution policies, and weak demand [4]. - The PP market is also expected to show an oscillating and slightly upward trend, considering cost support, upcoming reform plans, and the gradual improvement in downstream demand [8]. Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: In July, China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs both showed contraction, while exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year. An industry reform plan to address over - capacity is expected to be introduced in September. The overall demand for agricultural films is lower than expected, and the current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7300 (+0), with overall neutral fundamentals [4]. - Basis: The LLDPE 2601 contract basis is - 123, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.7%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The PE comprehensive inventory is 56.4 tons (+5.9), which is bearish [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to oscillate, and with the expectation of anti - involution policies and weak agricultural film demand, the PE is expected to trend slightly upward today [4]. - Factors: Positive factors include cost support and the expected introduction of a petrochemical anti - involution reform plan; negative factors are weak demand [6]. PP Overview - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, July's manufacturing PMIs contracted, and exports rose. A reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is expected in September. Downstream demand is gradually turning to the peak season, with a slight improvement in the demand for pipes and plastic weaving. The current PP delivery spot price is 7050 (+20), with overall neutral fundamentals [8]. - Basis: The PP 2601 contract basis is - 24, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.3%, showing a neutral signal [8]. - Inventory: The PP comprehensive inventory is 57.2 tons (-1.5), which is neutral [8]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [8]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [8]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to oscillate, and with the expectation of anti - involution policies and the improvement in downstream demand, the PP is expected to trend slightly upward today [8]. - Factors: Positive factors include cost support and the expected introduction of a petrochemical anti - involution reform plan; negative factors are weak demand [9]. Main Logic and Risks - Main Logic: The main influencing factors are cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [7][10]. - Risks: The main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [7][10]. Data Tables - Spot and Futures Data: The report provides detailed spot prices, futures prices, basis, and inventory data for LLDPE and PP, including information on import prices, import spreads, and different contract prices [11]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The supply - demand balance sheets for polyethylene and polypropylene from 2018 to 2025E are presented, showing data on capacity, production, net imports, consumption, and inventory [16][18]. Charts - The report includes multiple charts, such as LLDPE and PP's futures - spot prices and basis, warehouse receipts, comprehensive inventory, production cash flow, and polyolefin internal - external price spreads [12][14][19]