广发早知道：汇总版-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different sectors presenting diverse performances. In the stock index futures market, A - shares are booming, while the bond market has a certain degree of repair. The precious metals market is affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical factors. The shipping futures market is weak, and the non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural product markets also have their own characteristics and influencing factors [2][5][7] - For different sectors, corresponding investment strategies are proposed based on their fundamentals and market trends, such as buying put options in the stock index futures market, maintaining a wait - and - see attitude in the bond market, and taking different positions in other sectors according to their specific situations [4][6][12] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: On Monday, A - shares opened higher and continued to rise. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.26%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3%. The four major stock index futures contracts also rose, and the basis of the main contracts all increased [2][3] - News: Shanghai optimized the housing provident fund policy, and there were important meetings between South Korea and Japan overseas [3][4] - Funding: On August 25, the A - share trading volume increased significantly, with a total turnover of over 3 trillion. The central bank conducted 2884 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 219 billion yuan [4] - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to buy 09 out - of - the - money put options to protect long positions and sell 12 out - of - the - money put options to obtain time - value income [4] Bond Futures - Market Performance: Bond futures closed sharply higher, with the 30 - year main contract rising 0.78%, the 10 - year main contract rising 0.27%, etc. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined significantly [5] - Funding: The central bank's MLF operation showed its intention to support the market. Although the stock market was hot in the short term, the overall liquidity was expected to be stable under the policy [6] - Operation Suggestion: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, pay attention to whether the key points are broken through, and observe whether the sentiment can continue to stabilize [6] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market News: Trump's administration planned to impose a 50% tariff on Indian products, and there were meetings between the US and South Korea. The Fed's attitude towards interest - rate cuts was divided, and the geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine was easing [7][8] - Market Performance: The US dollar index rebounded, and precious metals slightly declined. The international gold price closed at 3365.95 US dollars per ounce, down 0.17%, and the international silver price closed at 38.55 US dollars per ounce, down 0.69% [8] - Outlook: Gold may冲击 the previous high of 3450 US dollars, and it is recommended to construct a bull spread strategy. Silver prices are generally strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions above 38 US dollars [9][10] - Funding: Under the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, financial institutions in Europe and the US continued to increase their holdings of gold and silver through ETFs [10] Financial Derivatives - Shipping Futures - Spot Quotation: As of August 26, the spot quotations of major shipping companies showed a downward trend [11] - Shipping Index: As of August 25, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index both declined [11] - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the PMI data of the eurozone and the US showed different situations [11] - Logic: The decline of the SCFIS European line may suppress market sentiment, and the downward trend of spot prices will put pressure on the futures market [12] - Operation Suggestion: It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [12] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of August 25, the average price of electrolytic copper increased, and the downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases [13] - Macro: The Fed's dovish stance boosted the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut in September, but there were still uncertainties about the subsequent interest - rate cut [13][16] - Supply: The spot TC of copper concentrate was at a low level, and the domestic electrolytic copper production in July increased significantly year - on - year [14] - Demand: The processing and terminal demand showed different trends, with the overall demand having certain resilience [15] - Inventory: The three - place copper inventory decreased [15] - Logic: The macro situation and fundamentals jointly affect copper prices. In the absence of a clear recession expectation in the US, copper prices will at least remain volatile [16] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to be in the range of 78500 - 80500, with a short - term view of oscillation [16] Alumina - Spot: The spot price of alumina showed a north - south differentiation, with the northern region under pressure and the southern region relatively supported [16] - Supply: In July, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the operating capacity was expected to increase slightly in August [17] - Inventory: The port inventory decreased, and the registered warehouse receipts increased [17] - Logic: The market is in a game between short - term supply disturbances and medium - term capacity relaxation. The price is expected to be in the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan per ton [18] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 3000 - 3300, with a view of wide - range oscillation and short - selling on rallies in the medium term [18] Aluminum - Spot: On August 25, the average price of A00 aluminum increased, and the premium decreased [18] - Supply: In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreased [19] - Demand: The downstream was in the transition stage between the off - season and the peak season, and the operating rates of some industries increased [19] - Inventory: The domestic mainstream consumption - area inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [20] - Logic: The market is facing supply - demand pressure, and it is expected to be volatile in the short term, with the main contract in the range of 20000 - 21000 yuan per ton [20] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20000 - 21000, and pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 [21] Aluminum Alloy - Spot: On August 25, the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 increased [21] - Supply: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rate increased. In August, it was expected to remain stable [21] - Demand: In July, the demand was under pressure, and the market trading activity decreased [21] - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slightly, and some areas' inventories were close to full [22] - Logic: The fundamentals showed marginal improvement, and the spot price was expected to be relatively stable. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 19600 - 20400 yuan per ton [22] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 19600 - 20400. If the short - term upward momentum of Shanghai aluminum is strong, it can be considered to participate in the arbitrage of long AD and short AL when the spread is above 500 [22] Zinc - Spot: On August 25, the average price of zinc ingots increased, and the downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases [23] - Supply: The zinc ore supply was in a loose cycle, and the domestic refined zinc production increased significantly in July [23] - Demand: The spot premium was at a low level, and the operating rates of the three primary processing industries were at a seasonal low [24] - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [24] - Logic: The supply - side is loose, and the demand - side is weak, but the decline of LME inventory provides support. The short - term zinc price is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [25] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to be in the range of 22000 - 23000, with a short - term view of oscillation [25] Tin - Spot: On August 25, the price of 1 tin increased, and the downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases [25] - Supply: In July, the domestic tin ore import volume decreased, and the supply was difficult to improve in the short term [26] - Demand and Inventory: The operating rates of solder enterprises decreased, and the demand was expected to be weak. The LME inventory increased slightly, and the social inventory decreased [27][28] - Logic: Affected by the Fed's dovish stance, the tin price rose. It is necessary to pay attention to the recovery of tin ore imports from Myanmar [28] - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, with a short - term view of wide - range oscillation [28] Nickel - Spot: As of August 25, the average price of electrolytic nickel increased [29] - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a relatively high level, and the monthly production was expected to increase slightly [29] - Demand: The demand for electroplating was stable, the alloy demand was good, the stainless - steel demand was general, and the demand for nickel sulfate was under pressure [29] - Inventory: The overseas inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory and bonded - area inventory were relatively stable [30] - Logic: The macro - environment improved, and the cost had certain support. The price was expected to be adjusted within a range in the short term [31] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to be in the range of 118000 - 126000, with a short - term view of range oscillation [32] Stainless Steel - Spot: As of August 25, the price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel increased, and the basis decreased [32] - Raw Materials: The price of nickel ore was relatively stable, the price of nickel iron increased slightly, and the price of ferrochrome was expected to be stable [32][33] - Supply: The estimated production of stainless - steel crude steel in August increased month - on - month [33] - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipts increased [33] - Logic: The cost provided support, but the demand was weak. The short - term market was expected to be oscillating within a range [34] - Operation Suggestion: The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12600 - 13400, with a short - term view of range oscillation [35] Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of August 25, the spot price of lithium carbonate decreased, and the downstream mainly made purchases at low prices [35] - Supply: In July, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production in August was expected to increase. The supply was expected to contract [36] - Demand: The demand was relatively optimistic, and the demand in August was expected to increase [36] - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased, with the upstream inventory decreasing and the downstream inventory increasing [37] - Logic: The market was in a narrow - range oscillation, and the short - term price was expected to oscillate around 80,000 [38][39] - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, with a short - term view of range oscillation [39] Black Metals Steel - Spot: Futures prices rose, and spot prices followed. The steel billet price increased by 40 to 3120 yuan, and the prices of other steel products also changed accordingly [39] - Cost and Profit: The cost support was expected to weaken, and the steel profit declined this week [39] - Supply: The iron - element production increased year - on - year, and the steel production in August increased compared with July. There was a risk of inventory accumulation from August to September [39] - Demand: The overall demand for steel increased year - on - year, and the decline in demand in the off - season was not significant. The current overall apparent demand decreased [40] - Inventory: The inventory of the five major steel products increased this week, with the inventory of rebar increasing significantly [40] - Viewpoint: It is expected that the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil will decline, and the steel price will remain oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to try long positions [40] Iron Ore - Spot: As of August 25, the spot prices of mainstream iron ore powders increased [41] - Futures: The iron ore futures contracts rose [41] - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties was calculated [42] - Demand: The daily average hot - metal production increased slightly, and the blast - furnace operating rate decreased slightly [42] - Supply: The global iron ore shipment volume decreased week - on - week, and the arrival volume decreased [42] - Inventory: The port inventory decreased slightly, the daily average port clearance volume decreased, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory decreased [42] - Viewpoint: It is recommended to buy at low prices unilaterally and recommend the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [43] Coking Coal - Futures and Spot: The coking coal futures rebounded strongly, and the spot price was relatively stable [44][46] - Supply: The coal mine operating rate increased, and the inventory of some coal mines increased [44][45] - Demand: The coking plant operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream demand was stable, but the demand was expected to decline in late August [45][46] - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased slightly, with different inventory changes in different sectors [45][46] - View，point: It is recommended to buy at low prices for the 2601 contract and recommend the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [46] Coke - Futures and Spot: The coke futures rebounded strongly, and the seventh - round price increase of coke was implemented [47][48] - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke increased [47] - Supply: The coking plant operating rate increased due to the improvement of profits [47][48] - Demand: The hot - metal production was at a high level, but it was expected to decline in August [48] - Inventory: The coking plant inventory increased, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory decreased [48] - Viewpoint: It is recommended to buy at low prices for the 2601 contract and recommend the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [48] Agricultural Products Meal - Spot Market: The prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the trading volume of soybean meal decreased [50] - Fundamentals: There were changes in the soybean policies of Brazil and Argentina, and the EU's oilseed imports decreased [50][51] - Market Outlook: The cost provided strong support, and the long - term outlook was positive [49][52] Pig - Spot Situation: The spot price of pigs was weakly oscillating [53] - Market Data: The profit of pig breeding decreased, and the average slaughter weight increased [53][54] - Market Outlook: It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and it can be considered to lay out long positions in the far - month 01 contract below 14,000 [54][55] Corn - Spot Price: As of August 25, the spot prices of corn in different regions decreased [56] - Fundamentals: The grain inventory in Guangzhou Port increased, with the corn inventory increasing significantly [56] - Market Outlook: The short - term supply and demand of corn were loose, and the price was expected to be weakly oscillating. In the medium term, the price was expected to move down towards the new - season cost [57]