大越期货尿素早报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China. The futures price, which previously rose due to rumors of increased export demand, has fallen as actual exports have not improved significantly. The report expects the UR contract to fluctuate today, considering factors such as high domestic supply, weak demand, strong international prices, and un - liberalized export policies [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures market has oscillated downward recently. Rumors of improved Sino - Indian relations and increased export demand led to a price increase, but actual exports have not improved. Current daily production and operating rates are high, and inventory is at a high level. Industrial demand from compound fertilizers and melamine is low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall supply in the domestic urea market far exceeds demand, and although export profits have declined, they remain strong while export policies have not been liberalized as expected. The spot price of the deliverable product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis for the UR2601 contract is 65, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.6%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.437 million tons (- 20,000 tons), suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is a bearish sign [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and short positions are increasing, also a bearish indicator [4]. - Expectation: The main urea contract is expected to oscillate. International urea prices are strong, but export policies have not been liberalized as expected. With a significant domestic supply - demand imbalance, the UR contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - Leverage and Risks: Bullish factors include strong international prices, while bearish factors are high production and weak domestic demand. The main logic is based on international prices and changes in domestic demand, and the main risk is changes in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The spot prices of the deliverable product and Shandong urea are 1810, with no change; the Henan spot price is 1810, up 25; the FOB China price is 3117 [6]. | | Futures Market | The price of the UR01 contract is 1745, up 6; the UR05 contract is 1789, up 7; the UR09 contract is 1714, down 1. The basis of the UR01 contract is 65, up 4 [6]. | | Inventory | The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.437 million tons (- 20,000 tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 896,000 tons (- 72,000 tons), and the UR port inventory is 541,000 tons (+ 25,000 tons). The number of warehouse receipts is 5123, an increase of 1050 [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Relevant Data | | --- | --- | | 2018 - 2024 | From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% - 15.5%. Production and apparent consumption have also generally increased over the years, and the import dependence has varied between 8.4% - 19.3%. The ending inventory and actual consumption have also shown corresponding changes [10]. | | 2025E | The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0%, but other data is not provided [10]. |