沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250826

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - 沪镍: The 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The overall situation is bearish in the medium - to - long term due to an oversupply pattern, although there are some short - term bullish factors such as the basis [3][4]. - 不锈钢: The 2510 contract is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average. The overall situation is neutral, with attention on the consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - 沪镍 - Fundamentals: The overseas market is closed. Ore prices remain stable, ferronickel prices are rising steadily, and the cost line is firm. Stainless steel inventory has increased, and the demand boost is limited. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, which is bearish [4]. - Basis: The spot price is 121,250, and the basis is 940, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: LME inventory is 209,748 (closed), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 22,292, a decrease of 260, which is bearish [4]. - Market: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - 不锈钢 - Fundamentals: Spot stainless steel prices are rising. Short - term nickel ore prices are stable, shipping costs are firm, and ferronickel prices are rising steadily. The cost line is firm, and inventory has increased. Attention should be paid to consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, which is neutral [5]. - Basis: The average stainless steel price is 13,800, and the basis is 920, which is bullish [5]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipts are 101,687, a decrease of 238, which is bearish [5]. - Market: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is neutral [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Factors - Bullish Factors: Expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, and cost support at 120,000 [8]. - Bearish Factors: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new growth points in demand, long - term oversupply pattern, and a year - on - year decline in the installed capacity of ternary batteries [8]. 3.3 Price Overview - 镍: The prices of most nickel products, including SMM1 electrolytic nickel, 1 Jinchuan nickel, 1 imported nickel, and nickel beans, have increased compared to the previous period [13]. - 不锈钢: The prices of cold - rolled stainless steel in some regions have increased, and the stainless steel futures price has also risen [13]. 3.4 Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - 镍: As of August 25, LME inventory remained unchanged at 209,748 (closed), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 260 to 22,292 [16]. - 不锈钢: As of August 22, the national stainless steel inventory was 1.0917 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 658,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,200 tons. On August 25, the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 238 to 101,687 [20][21]. 3.5 Raw Material Prices - 镍 Ore and Ferronickel: The prices of red - soil nickel ore and ferronickel remained stable from August 22 to August 25 [24]. - Stainless Steel Production Cost: The traditional production cost is 12,924, the scrap steel production cost is 13,590, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,565 [26]. - Nickel Import Cost: The calculated import price is 120,402 yuan/ton [28].