大越期货沪铜早报-20250826

Report's Core View - Copper price is expected to be short - term oscillating and slightly stronger due to inventory increase, geopolitical disturbances, off - season consumption pressure, and rising expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. The factors considered include a neutral fundamental situation, a neutral basis, a neutral inventory situation, a bullish trend on the disk, bullish major positions, and other elements [2]. Industry Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and scrap copper policies have been relaxed. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, showing a neutral situation [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot price is 79360, and the basis is - 330, indicating a discount to the futures, which is a neutral situation [2]. Inventory Analysis - On August 22, copper inventory decreased by 375 to 155975 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 4663 tons to 81698 tons compared with last week, presenting a neutral situation. Also, bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [2][14]. Disk Analysis - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward, showing a bullish trend [2]. Major Position Analysis - The major net positions are long, but the long positions are decreasing, which is a bullish sign [2]. Supply - Demand Balance Analysis - There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [20][22]. Other Analysis - Processing fees are falling, and the logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3][16].