大越期货PVC期货早报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC decreased this week. The production of calcium carbide - based enterprises and ethylene - based enterprises decreased, but the expected maintenance will decrease next week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase significantly [7]. - The downstream demand is currently weak. The overall downstream start - up rate is lower than the historical average level, and although some downstream sectors have increased their start - up rates, they are still below the historical average, except for the film and paste resin sectors which are above the historical average [8]. - The cost situation is mixed. The loss of calcium carbide - based profit decreased, while the loss of ethylene - based profit increased. The double - ton spread profit increased, which may lead to an increase in scheduled production [8]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5006 - 5088. It is necessary to continuously pay attention to macro - policies and export dynamics [9]. - There are both positive and negative factors. The positives include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The negatives are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide - based enterprises was 328,255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94%, and that of ethylene - based enterprises was 136,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.04%. Next week, the expected maintenance will decrease, and the scheduled production is expected to increase significantly [7]. - Demand: The overall downstream start - up rate was 42.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The start - up rates of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resins showed different changes, but overall, the current demand may remain weak [8]. - Cost: The calcium carbide - based profit was - 222.7577 yuan/ton, with the loss decreasing by 3.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The ethylene - based profit was - 591.501 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 9.60% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,728.65 yuan/ton, with the profit increasing by 1.90% month - on - month, higher than the historical average [8]. - Positions: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, showing a bearish trend [9]. - Expectation: The calcium carbide - based cost is strengthening, the ethylene - based cost is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. The supply pressure decreased this week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain weak. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5006 - 5088 [9]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents the price, spread, inventory, start - up rate, profit, and cost data of different PVC varieties and contracts, showing the changes in the PVC market [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Base - price Trend: It shows the historical data of the base price of PVC, reflecting the relationship between the spot price and the futures price [17]. - Price and Volume Analysis: It shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of PVC futures, helping to understand the market activity and price trends [21]. - Spread Analysis: It shows the historical data of the spread of the main PVC futures contracts, which is helpful for analyzing the price relationship between different contracts [23]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide - based Raw Materials: It includes the price, cost, profit, start - up rate, and production data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda, which affect the cost and production of calcium carbide - based PVC [26][29][31][34]. - Supply Trend: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production data of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC, reflecting the supply situation of PVC [39][41]. - Demand Trend: It shows the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - to - production ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream start - up rate data of PVC, reflecting the demand situation of PVC. It also includes the data of real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale, M2 increment, local government special bonds, and infrastructure investment, which are related to the demand for PVC [44][53][56]. - Inventory Situation: It shows the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days data of PVC, reflecting the inventory situation of PVC [57]. - Ethylene - based Situation: It shows the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene - based PVC, and import spread of vinyl chloride, reflecting the situation of ethylene - based PVC [59]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, reflecting the supply - demand balance situation of PVC [63].