大越期货豆粕早报-20250826

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 2: Report Core Views - Bean Meal: The US soybean market is affected by the expected high yield and technical adjustments, and is waiting for the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in the US soybean - producing areas. The domestic bean meal is influenced by the US soybean trend, with high imports in August and spot price discounts limiting the upside. It may enter a moderately strong oscillatory pattern in the short term. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 3080 and 3140 [8]. - Soybean: The US soybean market is under pressure from the expected high yield and good growth weather, while the domestic soybean market is affected by the expected increase in imports and the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans. The A2511 contract is expected to oscillate between 3960 and 4060 [10]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Prompt - No specific content for daily prompt is provided 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, imports, and China - US tariff negotiations. - The domestic import of soybeans remains high in August, and the oil - mill bean meal inventory is at a relatively high level. Affected by the relatively positive data in the August US agricultural report and the rise of rapeseed meal, the bean meal is short - term oscillating moderately strongly. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking. The recent recovery of bean meal demand supports the price, but due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, the bean meal returns to the range - oscillating pattern. - The domestic oil - mill bean meal inventory continues to rise. Affected by the possible speculation on the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and the variables in the China - US tariff war, the bean meal is short - term oscillating moderately strongly, waiting for the clear South American soybean output and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bean Meal - Likely Positive Factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low domestic oil - mill bean meal inventory, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas. - Likely Negative Factors: High total domestic imports of soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. - Soybean - Likely Positive Factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand. - Likely Negative Factors: The continuous expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans, increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans by China, and the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Bean Meal - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price in East China is 3010, and the basis is - 107, indicating a discount to the futures. - Inventory: The oil - mill bean meal inventory is 105.33 tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease from the same period last year. - Supply - demand: The arrival of imported soybeans at ports in August remains high, and the output of bean meal in July increased year - on - year. The downstream procurement has recovered, and the pick - up volume remains high. - Cost: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased following the decline of US soybeans, and the profit margin of imported soybeans on the futures market has worsened [8][24][51]. - Soybean - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price is 4300, and the basis is 308, indicating a premium to the futures. - Inventory: The oil - mill soybean inventory is 682.53 tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease from the same period last year. - Supply - demand: The expected increase in imports and the expected increase in the output of new domestic soybeans may suppress the price, but the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand provide some support [10]. 5. Position Data - Bean Meal: The main long positions have increased, but the funds have flowed out [8]. - Soybean: The main long positions have decreased, but the funds have flowed in [10].