工业硅期货早报-20250826

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week, demand was weak, inventory was high, and cost support weakened during the wet season. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8500 - 8850 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, demand is in a continuous recovery state, and cost support is weakening. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 50340 - 52820 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoint Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 88,000 tons, a 15% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 79,000 tons, a 12.5% decrease from the previous week, and demand remained weak [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 3174 yuan/ton, and cost support weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On August 25, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 425 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 543,000 tons, a 0.36% decrease; sample enterprise inventory was 175,100 tons, a 2.31% increase; major port inventory was 117,000 tons, remaining unchanged [6]. - Disk: MA20 was downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position was net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the production was 29,100 tons, a 0.68% decrease from the previous week. The estimated production in August was 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 12.29GW, a 1.57% increase; the battery cell production continued to increase; the component production was expected to decrease in the short - term and recover in the medium - term [9][10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 35,590 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 12,410 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On August 25, the price of N - type dense material was 48,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 2580 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [10]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 249,000 tons, a 2.89% increase, at a historically high level [10]. - Disk: MA20 was upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above MA20 [10]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, with an increase in long positions [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - Industrial silicon price: Various contract prices, spot prices, and price differences showed different trends. For example, the 01 - contract price decreased by 0.66%, and the price difference between 421 and 553 decreased by 9.09% [16]. - Polysilicon price: Various contract prices, spot prices, and cost - profit data showed different trends. For example, the 06 - contract price increased by 0.52%, and the average cost of the polysilicon industry decreased by 0.28% [18].