建信期货铁矿石日评-20250826

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On August 25, the main iron ore futures contract 2601 fluctuated upward, closing at 787.0 yuan/ton, up 2.27%. The accident at Rio Tinto's SimFer mine in Guinea has a limited impact, but it has boosted the overall bullish sentiment. The supply of iron ore may show a pattern of low first and high later, while the demand remains strong, and the reduction in production may be less than expected, which also provides some support for the ore price. The demand for downstream steel products has recovered this week, but the sustainability needs to be observed. Overall, the current bullish sentiment is strong, and the actual impact of production cuts in Tangshan and the impact of the September 3 parade on the demand for downstream construction steel products need to be further observed [7][10][11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - Spot Market: On August 25, the main iron ore outer market quotes increased by 2 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main-grade iron ore at Qingdao Port increased by 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [9] - Technical Analysis: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract formed a golden cross, and the green column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract began to narrow [9] 1.2 Outlook - News: On August 23, Rio Tinto announced that an employee of a contracting company died in an accident at the SimFer mine in Guinea on August 22. All activities at the SimFer mine have been suspended. The impact of the accident is limited, and production is expected to resume soon, but the overall bullish sentiment has been boosted [10] - Supply: The weekly shipment volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil increased last week. Considering the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival volume may show a pattern of low first and high later [11] - Demand: Currently, the production enthusiasm of enterprises remains at a relatively high level, and the molten iron output has increased for two consecutive weeks, still remaining at a relatively high level of over 2.4 million tons. Regarding the September 3 production restrictions, according to Mysteel research, some steel enterprises reported receiving oral notices on the morning of the 17th, but whether to reduce production still depends on future weather conditions. From the current weather situation, the production reduction may be less than expected, which also provides some support for the ore price [11] - Downstream: The demand for steel products has recovered this week, but the sustainability needs to be observed. Considering that infrastructure projects in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region may face phased shutdowns before September 3, and the expansion of US steel and aluminum tariffs, a cautious attitude is recommended [11] 2. Industry News - On the afternoon of August 25, the Market Committee of the China Coking Industry Association held a special market analysis meeting. Representatives of key coking enterprises from Shanxi, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, and other places attended the meeting. The participating representatives agreed that the coking market should raise prices again as soon as possible. The participating enterprises reached the following resolutions: Starting from 0:00 on August 26, the price of tamping wet quenched coke for steel mill customers will be increased by 50 yuan/ton, the price of tamping dry quenched coke will be increased by 55 yuan/ton, and the price of top-loaded coke will be increased by 75 yuan/ton [12] 3. Data Overview - The report provides a series of data charts, including the price of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price difference between high-grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the price difference between low-grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis of iron ore spot and January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipment volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines, the trading volume of iron ore at main ports, the available days of iron ore inventory in steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the inventory and port clearance volume of iron ore at ports, the tax-free molten iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and ironmaking capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average molten iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products [16][23][39]