大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate shows that the supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is expected to strengthen in the next month with potential inventory reduction. The cost - dominated situation has weakened, and the price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 77,640 - 81,120 [8][9]. - The overall situation of the lithium - related industry is affected by factors such as production capacity mismatch, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply Side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,138 tons, a 4.21% decrease from the previous week but higher than the historical average. In July 2025, the production was 81,530 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 tons, a 3.27% increase. The import volume in July was 13,845 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 tons, a 33.62% increase [8][9]. - Demand Side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 93,640 tons, a 1.51% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,617 tons, a 1.86% increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - Cost Side: The daily -环比 cost of 6% concentrate CIF decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 78,817 yuan/ton, a 0.89% daily decrease, with a profit of 2,516 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite is 81,868 yuan/ton, a 3.53% daily decrease, with a loss of 5,641 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is low. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10]. - Market Situation: The basis of the 11 - contract is 3,120 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The overall inventory is 141,543 tons, a 0.50% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The main position is net short, and the short position increases. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above the MA20 [10]. - Leverage Factors: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power - battery end to take delivery [11][12]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - Price Changes: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium salt, cathode materials, and lithium batteries have different degrees of changes, including increases and decreases [16]. - Supply - Demand Data: The weekly and monthly production, import, export, inventory, and other data of lithium carbonate and related products show different trends of increase and decrease [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price and Production: The price of lithium ore shows a certain trend of change, and the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite has different levels of production in different months and years [26]. - Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has increased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed [26]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different surpluses and deficits in different months from 2024 to 2025 [29]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production and Capacity: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium辉石, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) show different trends [32]. - Import and Export: The monthly import and export volume of lithium carbonate has changed, and the export volume from Chile to China has also shown a downward trend [32][35]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate shows different surpluses and deficits in different months from 2024 to 2025 [38]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production and Capacity Utilization: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization, smelting) show different trends [41]. - Export: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed in different months and years [41]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows different surpluses and deficits in different months from 2024 to 2025 [43]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials: The production cost and profit of lithium compounds from different raw materials (spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, recycled materials) show different trends [46][49]. - Processing and Purification Profit: The processing profit between different types of lithium hydroxide and the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also show different trends [49][52]. 3.7 Inventory - Carbonate Lithium Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources (smelter, downstream, other) shows different trends of increase and decrease [19][54]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter, downstream) shows different trends [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price and Production: The price, production, and shipment volume of lithium batteries show different trends, and the export volume of lithium batteries also changes in different years [58]. - Cost: The cost of lithium - battery cells shows different trends [58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price and Cost - Profit: The price of ternary precursor shows a certain trend of change, and the cost - profit situation of different types of ternary precursors also shows different trends [63]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The monthly production and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors show different trends [63]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors shows different surpluses and deficits in different months from 2024 to 2025 [66]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price and Cost - Profit: The price of ternary materials shows a certain trend of change, and the cost - profit situation of different types of ternary materials also shows different trends [69]. - Production and Inventory: The production and weekly inventory of ternary materials show different trends [69][71]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price and Cost - Profit: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium shows a certain trend of change, and the cost - profit situation of iron phosphate lithium also shows different trends [73]. - Production and Export: The monthly production and export volume of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium show different trends [76]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium shows different trends [78]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, Sales, and Export: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles show different trends, and the sales penetration rate also changes [81][82]. - Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers show different trends [85].