大越期货沥青期货早报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - From the supply side, in August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, the output of sample enterprises decreased, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices increased. Next week, the supply pressure may decrease [8]. - From the demand side, the current demand is lower than the historical average level. The construction of various types of asphalt and related downstream industries shows different trends, with some开工 rates decreasing and some remaining flat [8]. - From the cost side, the daily asphalt processing profit is negative, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries decreased. The processing loss of asphalt increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [9]. - The basis shows that on August 25, 2025, the spot price in Shandong was 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the October contract was 8 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a neutral situation [9]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory decreased, the factory inventory increased, and the port diluted asphalt inventory decreased [9]. - The disk shows that the MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the October contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend [9]. - The main positions are net long, changing from short to long, showing a bullish trend [9]. - It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2510 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3,490 - 3,534 [9]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [11]. - The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - price goods and the overall downward demand, along with the strengthened expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: The planned production volume in August 2025 decreased month - on - month, and this week's production - related indicators such as capacity utilization rate and output decreased, while the maintenance volume increased [8]. - Demand: The current demand is lower than the historical average, with different trends in the开工 rates of various types of asphalt and related downstream industries [8]. - Cost: The asphalt processing profit is negative, and the delayed coking profit decreased. Crude oil weakening weakens the cost support [9]. - Basis: The spot is at a premium to the futures, showing a neutral situation [9]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased, factory inventory increased, and port inventory decreased [9]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the October contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend [9]. - Main Positions: Net long, changing from short to long, showing a bullish trend [9]. - Expectation: Narrow - range fluctuation in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating between 3,490 - 3,534 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - This part provides data on the price, inventory, and other indicators of different asphalt contracts, including changes in prices, inventory quantities, and their corresponding month - on - month and year - on - year changes [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - It presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [19]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22]. - Asphalt and Crude Oil Price Trends: It displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: It presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 [28]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trends: It shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [33]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [35]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: It presents the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [37][41]. - Supply - Side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: It shows the historical trends of weekly shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 [44]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: It presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [46]. - Production Volume: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly production volume from 2019 to 2025 [49]. - Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Volume Trends: It presents the historical trends of Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production volume from 2018 to 2025 [54]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Production Volume: It shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production volume from 2019 to 2025 [56]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: It presents the historical trends of asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 [59]. - Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume: It shows the historical trends of estimated maintenance loss volume from 2018 to 2025 [61]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: It presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [66]. - Social Inventory and Factory Inventory: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [68]. - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio: It presents the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [71]. - Import and Export Analysis: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price spread of South Korean asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [74][77]. - Demand - Side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Production Volume: It shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production volume from 2019 to 2025 [80]. - Apparent Consumption Volume: It presents the historical trends of apparent consumption volume from 2019 to 2025 [83]. - Downstream Demand: It shows the historical trends of downstream demand indicators such as highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, etc. from 2019 to 2025 [87][90]. - Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate: It presents the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate, asphalt capacity utilization rate by use, and downstream capacity utilization rate (including various types of modified asphalt and waterproofing membrane) from 2019 to 2025 [95][98][101]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from 2025, including data on downstream demand, inventory, import, export, and production volume [106].