大越期货菜粕早报-20250826

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2520 - 2580. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand will enter the off - season, and there are still uncertainties in China - Canada trade consultations. The market is in a short - term strong - side fluctuating pattern [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, with good demand expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The global rapeseed output has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the reduction in the EU and lower - than - expected output in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Trading Volume and Price Difference: From August 14 to August 25, the trading volume of rapeseed meal was generally low, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, with the difference on August 25 being 500 [13]. - Futures and Spot Prices: From August 15 to August 25, rapeseed meal futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling, while the spot price remained relatively stable. The spot price in Fujian on August 25 was 2580 [15]. - Warehouse Receipts: From August 13 to August 25, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 9821 to 8066, with a continuous decline [17]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory was 2.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 25% [9]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [9].