《黑色》日报-20250826

Report on the Steel Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core View - The price of steel has risen again, with the spread between the October and January contracts of rebar decreasing and that of hot-rolled coils strengthening. The spread between coils and rebar is expected to decline from its high. Total apparent demand showed signs of bottoming out and rebounding last week but remained at an off - peak level. Steel prices are expected to remain in a high - level volatile pattern, and it is recommended to try long positions, with reference levels of 3140 yuan for hot - rolled coils and 3380 yuan for rebar [1]. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3310 yuan/ton, 3280 yuan/ton, and 3420 yuan/ton respectively; hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China were 3430 yuan/ton, 3380 yuan/ton, and 3420 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar was 3344 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils was - 41 yuan/ton; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar was 3200 yuan/ton, and the profit of North China hot - rolled coils was 15 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output was 240.8 tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 tons. The output of five major steel products was 878.1 tons, an increase of 6.4 tons or 0.7%. The inventory of five major steel products was 1441.0 tons, an increase of 25.1 tons or 1.8% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume was 11.1 tons, an increase of 1.7 tons or 18.3%. The apparent demand for five major steel products was 853.0 tons, an increase of 22.0 tons or 2.6% [1]. Report on the Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core View - The 2601 contract of iron ore showed an oscillating upward trend. The global shipment volume of iron ore decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports declined, but the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to recover. The pig iron output remained at a high level, and downstream apparent demand rebounded. It is recommended to switch to long positions on dips and recommend the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [3]. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines was 807.7 yuan/ton, a 1.9% increase; the 01 contract basis of Carajás fines was 20.7 yuan/ton, a 520.4% increase [3]. Supply and Demand Indicators - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2393.3 tons, a decrease of 83.3 tons or 3.4%; the weekly global shipment volume was 3315.8 tons, a decrease of 90.8 tons or 2.7% [3]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 11.2 tons or 0.1% compared to Monday; the inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 70.9 tons or 0.8% [3]. Report on the Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core View - Coke futures showed a strong rebound, and the seventh round of coke price increase was implemented. Due to supply - demand tightness, downstream steel mills still had restocking demand. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coke on dips and recommend the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke. Coking coal futures also rebounded strongly, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coking coal on dips and recommend the same arbitrage [5]. Summary by Directory Price and Spread - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) was 1610 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 09 contract of coke was 1627 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.5% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly coke output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 tons, a 0.1% increase; the weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 tons, a 0.0% increase [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory was 888.6 tons, an increase of 1.2 tons or 0.1%; the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants was 966.4 tons, a decrease of 10.5 tons or 1.1% [5].