《特殊商品》日报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - In the context of macro - warming and driven by news of coking coal accidents, the soda ash futures market rebounded. Fundamentally, weekly production increased significantly, but the demand was obviously in excess under the current weekly production. In the medium - term, after the second - quarter rush for photovoltaic installation, the growth of photovoltaic glass capacity slowed down, and the float glass capacity remained flat. There is still pressure on supply and demand in the future, and there may be further cold - repair expectations. Without actual capacity withdrawal or load reduction, the inventory will be further pressured. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and the load - regulation of soda ash plants [1]. Natural Rubber - Due to continuous rainy weather in both domestic and foreign production areas, upstream supply fell short of expectations, and raw material prices remained high. The de - stocking rate of spot inventory in Qingdao slowed down, and with the incremental release of alternative plantings in Yunnan, China's social inventory increased, intensifying the market's bearish sentiment. In terms of demand, although agents may slightly increase their purchases to meet monthly tasks at the end of the month, downstream demand mainly continues with regular replenishment. Affected by external factors, trading in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region may slow down, and mining and engineering operations in some other regions may be suspended, which is negative for the replacement demand. Overall, affected by the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, market sentiment improved, driving up rubber prices, but rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material supply during the peak production season in the main production areas, and short positions can be considered if the raw material supply goes smoothly [3]. Polysilicon - In August, both supply and demand of polysilicon increased, but the supply growth rate was relatively large, and there was still pressure on inventory accumulation. Due to the previous sharp rise in prices above the full - cost level and the addition of two new delivery brands by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, it is expected that the number of warehouse receipts will further increase. Currently, attention can be paid to the constraints of energy consumption and green - electricity ratio in promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity. The price will mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit possibly between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. When the price is high, put options can be bought during low - volatility periods to try short positions. Technically, the futures price may choose a direction to break through in a converging triangle, and straddle options can be bought when the volatility is low. Investors are advised to pay attention to position control and risk management in advance [5]. Industrial Silicon - From the cost perspective, raw material prices started to rise, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, causing the cost center of industrial silicon to rise. Although the production of industrial silicon increased month - on - month recently, there were also news of production - capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. In terms of supply and demand, both supply and demand increased in August, maintaining a tight balance. If some production capacity is cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will be reduced. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. However, it should be noted that as production increases, inventory and warehouse - receipt pressure are emerging. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and long positions established at the previous low level of 8,000 - 8,500 yuan/ton should be held [6]. Logs - No overall core view is explicitly stated in the log report, but data on price, supply, inventory, and demand are presented. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass:华北报价1140元/吨,华东报价1190元/吨,华中报价1090元/吨,华南报价1230元/吨,价格 remained unchanged. Glass 2505 rose 0.87% to 1280 yuan/ton, and Glass 2509 rose 0.20% to 999 yuan/ton. The 05 basis decreased by 8.53% to - 140 yuan/ton [1]. - Soda Ash:华北报价1350元/吨,华东 and华中报价1250元/吨,西北报价1020元/吨, all unchanged. Soda Ash 2505 rose 1.02% to 1393 yuan/ton, and Soda Ash 2509 remained unchanged at 1226 yuan/ton. The 05 basis decreased by 48.28% to - 43 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - Soda Ash: The operating rate on August 22 was 88.48%, up 1.33% from August 15, and the weekly output was 77.14 tons, up 1.33% [1]. - Float Glass: The daily melting volume remained unchanged at 15.96 tons [1]. - Photovoltaic Glass: The daily melting volume remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [1]. Inventory - Glass Factory: The inventory on August 22 was 63.606 million weight - boxes, up 0.28% from August 15 [1]. - Soda Ash Factory: The inventory on August 22 was 1.9106 million tons, up 0.89% from August 15. The inventory in delivery warehouses was 496,300 tons, up 6.37% [1]. Real Estate Data - New Construction Area: The current value is - 0.09%, up 0.09% from the previous value [1]. - Construction Area: The current value is 0.05%, down 2.43% from the previous value [1]. - Completion Area: The current value is - 0.22%, down 0.03% from the previous value [1]. - Sales Area: The current value is - 6.55%, down 6.50% from the previous value [1]. Natural Rubber Prices and Spreads - Spot: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose 1.37% to 14,850 yuan/ton. The whole - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased by 8.21% to - 1,055 yuan/ton. Thai standard mixed rubber remained unchanged at 14,600 yuan/ton. The non - standard price difference decreased by 27.32% to - 1,305 yuan/ton [3]. - Raw Materials: The FOB mid - price of cup rubber in the international market rose 0.71% to 49.50 Thai baht/kg, and the FOB mid - price of glue rose 0.45% to 55.00 Thai baht/kg [3]. - Futures Month - to - Month Spreads: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 5.24% to - 1005 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 5.00% to - 100 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 5.21% to 1110 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamentals - Production: In June, Thailand's production was 392,600 tons, up 44.23%; India's production was 62,400 tons, up 30.82%; Indonesia's production was 176,200 tons, down 12.03%; China's production was 103,200 tons, down 6.80% [3]. - Tire Production: In July, domestic tire production was 94.364 million pieces, down 8.16%; tire exports were 66.65 million pieces, up 10.51% [3]. - Import: In June, the total import of natural rubber was 474,800 tons, up 2.47%. In July, the import of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 630,000 tons, up 5.00% [3]. Inventory - Bonded Area: The inventory was 616,731 tons, down 0.50% [3]. - Futures Warehouse: The inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE was 44,857 tons, down 3.47% [3]. - Warehouse Rates: In Qingdao, the inbound rate of dry rubber in bonded warehouses decreased by 3.71%, and the outbound rate increased. The inbound rate of dry rubber in general trade decreased by 0.72%, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.32% [3]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - N - type Reclaimed Feedstock: The average price remained unchanged at 49,000 yuan/ton. The N - type material basis (average price) decreased by 7.28% to - 2,580 yuan/ton [5]. - N - type Silicon Wafers: The average price of 210mm wafers and 210R wafers remained unchanged at 1.58 yuan/piece and 1.38 yuan/piece respectively [5]. - Cells and Components: The average prices of single - crystal Topcon cells (210R), Topcon components (210mm for distributed), and N - type 210mm components for centralized projects remained unchanged [5]. Futures Prices and Month - to - Month Spreads - The main contract rose 0.34% to 21,580 yuan/ton. The current - to - first - continuous spread decreased by 26.67% to - 190 yuan/ton, the first - to - second - continuous spread increased by 36.00% to 170 yuan/ton, and the second - to - third - continuous spread remained unchanged [5]. Fundamentals - Weekly: The silicon wafer production was 12.29 GM, up 1.57%; the polysilicon production was 29,100 tons, down 0.68% [5]. - Monthly: The polysilicon production was 101,000 tons, up 5.10%; the import was 12,000 tons, up 47.48%; the export was 21,000 tons, down 3.92%; the net export was 10,000 tons, down 32.44%. The silicon wafer production was 52.75 GM, down 10.35%; the import was 30,000 tons, down 53.06%; the export was 460,000 tons, down 24.68%; the net export was 430,000 tons, down 21.43%. The silicon wafer demand was 58.54 GM, up 0.21% [5]. Inventory - Polysilicon: The inventory was 249,000 tons, up 2.89%; the number of warehouse receipts was 6,540, up 1.24% [5]. - Silicon Wafers: The inventory was 17.41 GM, down 12.07% [5]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - East China Oxygen - Passed SI5530: The price rose 1.08% to 9,320 yuan/ton, and the basis rose 33.66% to 675 yuan/ton [6]. - East China SI4210: The price remained unchanged at 9,000 yuan/ton, and the basis rose 127.27% to 125 yuan/ton [6]. - Xinjiang 99 Silicon: The price rose 2.37% to 8,650 yuan/ton, and the basis rose 53.47% to 775 yuan/ton [6]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 75.00% to - 35 yuan/ton; the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 100.00% to 0 yuan/ton; the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 4.29% to - 365 yuan/ton; the 2512 - 2601 spread increased by 100.00% to 10 yuan/ton; the 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 140.00% to - 20 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamentals - Production: National industrial silicon production was 338,300 tons, up 3.23%. Xinjiang's production was 150,300 tons, down 15.21%; Yunnan's production was 41,200 tons, up 153.86%; Sichuan's production was 48,500 tons, up 31.05% [6]. - Operating Rate: The national operating rate was 52.61%, up 2.47%. Xinjiang's operating rate was 52.59%, down 18.21%; Yunnan's operating rate was 32.89%, up 133.76%; Sichuan's operating rate was 36.96%, up 56.81% [6]. - Other Productions: Organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and recycled aluminum alloy production also had corresponding changes [6]. - Exports: Industrial silicon exports were 74,000 tons, up 8.32% [6]. Inventory - Xinjiang Factory: The inventory was 120,100 tons, up 2.65% [6]. - Yunnan Factory: The inventory was 31,900 tons, up 1.59% [6]. - Sichuan Factory: The inventory was 22,800 tons, up 0.89% [6]. - Social Inventory: The inventory was 543,000 tons, down 0.37% [6]. - Warehouse Receipt Inventory: The inventory was 255,200 tons, down 0.23% [6]. - Non - Warehouse Receipt Inventory: The inventory was 287,800 tons, down 0.49% [6]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log Futures: Log 2509 rose 0.31% to 803.5 yuan/ton; Log 2511 rose 0.61% to 820 yuan/ton; Log 2601 rose 0.67% to 831.5 yuan/ton. The 9 - 11 spread decreased to - 16.5 yuan/ton, the 9 - 1 spread decreased to - 28 yuan/ton. The 09 contract basis decreased to - 53.5 yuan/ton, the 11 contract basis decreased to - 70 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract basis decreased to - 81.5 yuan/ton [7]. - Spot: The prices of various types of radiation pine and spruce in Rizhao and Taicang ports remained unchanged [7]. Outer - Market Quotes - The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiation pine remained at 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce remained at 128 euros/JAS cubic meter [7]. Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate decreased to 7.158 yuan, and the import theoretical cost decreased to 815.94 yuan [7]. Supply - In July, the shipping volume in the port was 1.733 million cubic meters, down 1.51% from June. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 47, down 11.32% [7]. Inventory - China: The inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, down 0.33% [7]. - Shandong: The inventory was 1.86 million cubic meters, up 0.32% [7]. - Jiangsu: The inventory was 995,000 cubic meters, up 1.22% [7]. Demand - China: The daily average outbound volume was 64,500 cubic meters, up 2% [7]. - Shandong: The daily average outbound volume was 34,900 cubic meters, down 3% [7]. - Jiangsu: The daily average outbound volume was 24,200 cubic meters, up 4% [7].