《农产品》日报-20250826

Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Palm Oil - Internationally, it may test the support at 4,500 ringgit and could briefly drop to 4,350 ringgit. Pay attention to the guidance of production and inventory data on the market [1]. - Domestically, after stabilizing above 9,500 yuan, it may strengthen and fluctuate towards the 9,800 - 10,000 yuan range, maintaining a near - strong and far - weak pattern [1]. Soybean Oil - Internationally, CBOT soybean oil is currently under pressure. If the policy is not released, it may decline due to sufficient soybean supply in the US [1]. - Domestically, with the arrival of the consumption season, factory sales have improved. Although inventory is currently increasing, it is expected to decrease, and the basis quote may rise [1]. Corn - Short - term: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and the market is in a weak and volatile state [2]. - Medium - term: New - season corn costs are decreasing, production may increase steadily, and there is significant supply pressure in the fourth quarter [2]. Pork - Short - term: Market sentiment may support the market, but there may be a concentrated supply before the double festivals, and near - term fluctuations are intense. It is recommended to wait and see. Consider buying far - month 01 contracts below 14,000 [6]. Meal - Internationally, US soybean prices are supported by weather and other factors, but the upward trend in the domestic market may not be smooth due to concerns about import pressure [10]. - Domestically, the decline of two meals is limited, and cost support is strong in the fourth quarter [10]. Sugar - Internationally, raw sugar is under pressure from supply expectations, but there is a risk of production reduction in Brazil. It is expected to consolidate in the 15 - 17 cents/pound range [13]. - Domestically, the spot market has improved, but there is resistance to high prices. Supply is becoming more abundant, and prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [13]. Cotton - Short - term: Domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range due to tight old - crop inventory and low quota issuance [14]. - Long - term: New - season production is expected to increase, and prices may face pressure after the new cotton is listed [14]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is sufficient, downstream digestion is slow, and egg prices are expected to remain bearish [16]. 3. Summary by Industry Oil Soybean Oil - Spot price in Jiangsu increased from 8,600 to 8,740 yuan, a rise of 0.58%. Futures price (Y2601) rose from 8,492 to 8,536 yuan, a rise of 0.52%. Basis (Y2601) increased by 3.03% [1]. Palm Oil - Spot price in Guangdong increased from 9,540 to 9,620 yuan, a rise of 0.84%. Futures price (P2601) dropped from 9,510 to 9,488 yuan, a decline of 0.23%. Basis (P2601) increased by 340% [1]. Rapeseed Oil - Spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.30%. Futures price (OI601) rose slightly. Basis (OI601) increased by 60% [1]. Corn - Corn 2511 in Jinzhou Port decreased by 0.97%. Basis increased by 63.08%. Corn 11 - 3 spread decreased by 53.33% [2]. - Corn starch 2511 decreased by 0.68%. Basis increased by 8.02%. Starch - corn spread increased by 1.24% [2]. Pork - The spot price remained stable with slight fluctuations. The basis of the main contract decreased by 24.05%. The slaughter volume decreased by 0.84% [5]. Meal Soybean Meal - Spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.33%. Futures price (M2601) rose by 0.94%. Basis decreased by 50% [10]. Rapeseed Meal - Spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.57%. Futures price (RM2601) rose by 0.16%. Basis increased by 1200% [10]. Sugar - Sugar 2601 increased by 0.32%. Sugar 2509 decreased by 0.10%. ICE raw sugar decreased by 0.30% [13]. - National sugar production increased by 12.03%, and sales increased by 15.76% [13]. Cotton - Cotton 2509 increased by 0.29%. Cotton 2601 increased by 0.64%. ICE US cotton decreased by 0.91% [14]. - Commercial inventory decreased by 16.9%, and imports increased by 66.7% [14]. Eggs - Egg 09 contract increased by 1.06%. Egg 10 contract decreased by 0.40%. Egg production area price decreased by 1.46% [16].