广发期货《有色》日报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The "stagflation-like" environment restricts the upside of copper prices, but the dovish Fed statement on August 22 boosted market expectations of a September rate cut, thus lifting copper prices. The inflation pressure may not prevent the restart of rate cuts, but the actual rate cut幅度 is uncertain. The key lies in whether the inflation caused by tariffs is a one-time shock. - Fundamentally, the supply-demand contradiction of copper remains the main line, with a tight supply situation. The copper price is expected to be range-bound in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 78,500 - 80,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is facing a game between short-term supply disruptions and long-term overcapacity. The price of the main contract is expected to be in the range of 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton this week, and short positions can be considered at high prices. - The aluminum market is under pressure from the supply-demand structure, and the inventory is expected to accumulate. The short-term aluminum price is expected to be volatile, with the main contract reference range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals of the aluminum alloy market are showing marginal improvement, and the social inventory has decreased. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which supports the cost. The demand for communication die-casting has increased, while the automotive sector is still weak. The spot price is expected to remain relatively firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to converge. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is loose, and the demand is weak, which limits the continuous upward movement of zinc prices. However, the decline in overseas inventories provides support for prices. The short-term zinc price is expected to be volatile and stronger due to improved rate cut expectations, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - The Fed's dovish signal has pushed up tin prices. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short-selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to remain high and volatile [12]. Nickel - The macro sentiment has improved, and the cost provides some support. The supply is expected to be loose, but the pace is slow. The short-term nickel price is expected to be range-adjusted, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - The cost of stainless steel provides support, but the weak spot demand restricts the market. The short-term price is expected to be range-bound, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a tight balance. The supply contraction expectation is gradually being realized, and the demand is showing a steady and optimistic trend. The short-term price is expected to fluctuate widely around 80,000 yuan/ton [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.72% to 79,395 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was -49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 202.58 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.47%. - The domestic social inventory decreased by 8.00% to 12.30 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.34% to 20,780 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was -1,354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 127.8 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.40%. - The LME inventory decreased by 0.17% to 47.9 million tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy price increased by 0.49% to 20,550 yuan/ton. - The 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton to -20 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In July, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 62.50 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.63%. - The regenerated aluminum alloy social inventory decreased by 0.28% to 3.51 million tons [7]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.50% to 22,310 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was -1,766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 89.74 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.03%. - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 2.29% to 13.85 million tons [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.39% to 269,700 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 52 dollars/ton to 50 dollars/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.71%. - The SHFE tin inventory decreased by 3.86% to 7,491 tons [12]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.58% to 121,250 yuan/ton. - The futures import profit and loss was -1,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 677 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel product production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons. - The SHFE nickel inventory increased by 2.93% to 26,962 tons [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price increased by 0.77% to 13,100 yuan/ton. - The 2510 - 2511 month - to - month spread increased by 15 yuan/ton to -60 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.61% to 50.45 million tons [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 1.67% to 82,500 yuan/ton. - The 2509 - 2511 month - to - month spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.41%. - The lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 2.01% to 97,846 tons [18].