Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held this week. The direction of monetary policy in the second half of the year is crucial for the equity market. A - shares have risen significantly in the past month and are expected to enter a high - level shock to wait for a directional choice [2]. - The short - term 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate around 1.78% - 1.8% may be the resistance level for the stage interest rate to rise, and the T2512 contract has support around 107.4 - 107.6. Considering the continuous strengthening of the stock market, the bond market may fluctuate [2]. - The market digests the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the US dollar index stops falling and rebounds, and precious metals fall slightly. Gold is oscillating strongly, and silver long positions above $38 continue to be held [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is weakly oscillating, and the short position of the 10 - contract continues to be held. The apparent demand for steel stops falling and rebounds, and the 10 - contract hot - rolled coil and rebar can be tried to go long. The shipment of iron ore falls from a high level, and it fluctuates with the steel price [2]. - Due to the sudden mine accident and partial coal mine shutdowns, the coking coal futures are expected to rebound. The seventh round of price increases for mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the eighth round has been launched [2]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, and the center of copper prices moves up. The supply - side speculation of alumina eases, and the inventory of aluminum increases. The supply - demand structure of aluminum still faces pressure [2]. - The supply of urea increases year - on - year, and the demand has no seasonal improvement signs. The PX center is strong, and the PTA drive is strong in the short term. The supply - demand of short - fiber is expected to improve, but there is no obvious short - term drive [2]. - The spot price of live pigs fluctuates weakly, and the corn supply increases, and the price continues to be weak. The export of palm oil slows down, but it still runs strongly. The overseas sugar supply outlook is loose [2]. - The macro - emotion of glass drives the far - month contract to strengthen, but the industry negative feedback continues. The macro - emotion of rubber is positive, and the price rises [2]. - The spot price of polysilicon is slightly adjusted upwards, and the lithium carbonate market is less sensitive to news [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index - Market Situation: A - shares have risen significantly in the past month, and are expected to enter a high - level shock to wait for a directional choice [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Buy put options to protect long positions, or partially stop profit on previous positions [2]. Treasury Bond - Market Situation: The bond market sentiment recovers, and the bond futures close higher across the board. The short - term 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate around 1.78% - 1.8% may be the resistance level for the stage interest rate to rise, and the T2512 contract has support around 107.4 - 107.6. Considering the continuous strengthening of the stock market, the bond market may fluctuate [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Keep a short - term wait - and - see attitude [2]. Precious Metals - Market Situation: The market digests the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, the US dollar index stops falling and rebounds, and precious metals fall slightly. Gold oscillates strongly, and silver long positions above $38 continue to be held [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Buy gold options; sell AU2512C792 and buy AU2512C776 to build a bullish spread strategy [2]. Shipping Index (European Line) - Market Situation: Weakly oscillating [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold the short position of the 10 - contract [2]. Steel and Iron Ore - Market Situation: The apparent demand for steel stops falling and rebounds. The shipment of iron ore falls from a high level, and the port inventory and clearance decrease slightly. It fluctuates with the steel price [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Try to go long on the 10 - contract hot - rolled coil and rebar. Go long on the iron ore 01 contract at low prices [2]. Coking Coal, Coke - Market Situation: Due to the sudden mine accident and partial coal mine shutdowns, the coking coal futures are expected to rebound. The seventh round of price increases for mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the eighth round has been launched [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Go long on the coking coal 01 and coke 01 contracts at low prices [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Market Situation: The expectation of interest rate cuts improves, and the center of copper prices moves up. The supply - side speculation of alumina eases, and the inventory of aluminum increases. The supply - demand structure of aluminum still faces pressure [2]. - Operation Suggestion: The copper main contract refers to 78,500 - 80,500. The alumina main contract refers to 3,000 - 3,300. The aluminum main contract refers to 20,000 - 21,000, and pay attention to the pressure level at 21,000 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Market Situation: The supply of urea increases year - on - year, and the demand has no seasonal improvement signs. The PX center is strong, and the PTA drive is strong in the short term. The supply - demand of short - fiber is expected to improve, but there is no obvious short - term drive [2]. - Operation Suggestion: For urea, use a band - trading idea. For PX, be cautiously bullish in the short term. For PTA, be cautiously bullish and conduct a rolling reverse spread on TA1 - 5 [2]. Agricultural Products - Market Situation: The spot price of live pigs fluctuates weakly, and the corn supply increases, and the price continues to be weak. The export of palm oil slows down, but it still runs strongly. The overseas sugar supply outlook is loose [2]. - Operation Suggestion: For live pigs, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity. For corn, it runs weakly. For palm oil, it may hit 9,800 - 10,000 at the end of the month. For sugar, conduct a bearish rebound trade [2]. Special Commodities - Market Situation: The macro - emotion of glass drives the far - month contract to strengthen, but the industry negative feedback continues. The macro - emotion of rubber is positive, and the price rises [2]. - Operation Suggestion: For glass, stop the short - position profit. For rubber, go short at a high position if the raw material supply is smooth [2]. New Energy - Market Situation: The spot price of polysilicon is slightly adjusted upwards, and the lithium carbonate market is less sensitive to news [2]. - Operation Suggestion: For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, mainly wait and see [2].
广发期货日评-20250826
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-08-26 06:28