广发期货《黑色》日报-20250826

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Steel prices rose again, with the spread between the 10 - 1 contract of rebar falling and that of hot - rolled coil strengthening. The spread between coil and rebar is expected to decline from its high. The overall apparent demand showed signs of bottoming out and rebounding last week but remained at an off - season level. Steel is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern, and it is recommended to try long positions, with reference levels of 3140 yuan for hot - rolled coil and 3380 yuan for rebar [1] Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased from 3280 yuan/ton to 3310 yuan/ton. The 10 - 1 spread of rebar decreased, while that of hot - rolled coil increased [1] - Cost and Profit: Costs and profits of different steel - making processes and regions changed. For instance, the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased from 117 to - 41 [1] - Production: The daily average pig iron output was 240.8 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 million tons (0.0%). The output of five major steel products was 878.1 million tons, an increase of 6.4 million tons (0.7%) [1] - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products increased from 1416.0 million tons to 1441.0 million tons, a rise of 25.1 million tons (1.8%) [1] - Transaction and Demand: The building materials trading volume increased from 9.4 to 11.1, a rise of 1.7 (18.3%). The apparent demand of five major steel products increased from 831.0 million tons to 853.0 million tons, a rise of 22.0 million tons (2.6%) [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The 2601 contract of iron ore showed an oscillating upward trend. The global shipment volume of iron ore decreased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports declined, but the subsequent average arrival volume is expected to rebound. The short - term demand is bearish, but after the military parade, the resumption of steel mills' production will support raw materials. It is recommended to switch to long positions on dips and recommend the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [3] Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the basis of the 01 contract for different powders also changed significantly. For example, the basis of the 01 contract for PB powder increased from 23.9 to 40.1, a rise of 16.3 (68.3%) [3] - Supply: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports was 2393.3 million tons, a decrease of 83.3 million tons (- 3.4%); the global weekly shipment volume was 3315.8 million tons, a decrease of 90.8 million tons (- 2.7%) [3] - Demand: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 million tons (0.0%); the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports was 325.7 million tons, a decrease of 8.9 million tons (- 2.7%) [3] - Inventory: The inventory at 45 ports decreased from 13856.40 million tons to 13845.20 million tons, a decrease of 11.2 million tons (- 0.1%); the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased from 9136.4 million tons to 9065.5 million tons, a decrease of 70.9 million tons (- 0.8%) [3] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The coke futures showed a strong rebound, and the coking coal futures also rebounded strongly. The seventh round of coke price increase was implemented. The supply and demand of coke are expected to be tight, and the downstream steel mills still have restocking needs. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coke on dips and recommend the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coking coal, due to factors such as limited production expectations, it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coking coal on dips and the same arbitrage strategy [5] Summary by Directory - Prices and Spreads: The prices of coke and coking coal contracts and their spreads changed. For example, the 01 contract of coke increased from 1679 yuan/ton to 1736 yuan/ton, a rise of 3.4%; the 09 - 01 spread of coke decreased from - 52 to - 84 [5] - Supply: The weekly output of coke and coking coal showed different trends. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants was 65.5 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1 million tons (0.1%); the weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines was 860.4 million tons, an increase of 3.8 million tons (0.4%) [5] - Demand: The weekly pig iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.8 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.1 million tons (0.0%). The coking plants' demand for coking coal increased slightly [5] - Inventory: The inventory of coke and coking coal in different sectors changed. The total coke inventory increased from 887.4 million tons to 888.6 million tons, a rise of 1.2 million tons (0.1%); the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased from 976.9 million tons to 966.4 million tons, a decrease of 10.5 million tons (- 1.1%) [5]