瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250826

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, Asian major sugar - producing countries have a good production outlook with a loose global supply expectation. However, there are concerns about Brazil's sugar - cane sugar content in the 2025/26 season, and demand shows improvement signs, so the raw sugar price maintains a low - level oscillating trend. Domestically, the profit window for out - of - quota imports remains open, and the import pressure is released. The sugar import volume in July increased significantly month - on - month, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past decade, and the peak will continue from August to September. Beet sugar will start being squeezed in September, increasing the supply. On the demand side, the upcoming double - festival stocking is expected to boost demand. The inventory pressure is not significant due to good previous sales, but the increase in processed sugar has slowed down the de - stocking process. The new - season production is expected to be at a high level in the past four years. Technically, the sugar 2601 contract dropped sharply at noon, hitting a one - week low. Overall, the current domestic sugar inventory pressure is not large, and the double - festival stocking expectation provides support for the sugar price. But the significant increase in imports, the upcoming northern sugar - mill squeezing, and the high - expected new - season production will limit the medium - term upward price space. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices and control risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5632 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan; the main contract position is 366,130 lots, down 1,534 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 15,315, down 70; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 13,924 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1, unchanged; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4,540 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar (within quota) is 4,540 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5,769 yuan/ton; the estimated import price of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5,755 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,860 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning, it is 5,950 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Liuzhou, it is 6,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares; the national cumulative sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons; the national cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume is 740,000 tons, an increase of 320,000 tons; the monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.5937 million tons, an increase of 0.2347 million tons [2] 产业情况 - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within quota) is 1,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (within quota) is 1,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 29 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 101 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 73 yuan [2] 下游情况 - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point [2] 期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.3%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 8.3%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.75%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.13%, unchanged [2] 行业消息 - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat export data shows that Brazil exported 2,813,944.72 tons of sugar in the first four weeks of August, with an average daily export volume of 175,871.55 tons, a 1% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in August last year. On Monday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.3%. On Tuesday, the sugar 2601 contract closed down 0.93% [2]