鲍威尔释放降息信号，港股或受情绪面利好

Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints - The external environment of the Hong Kong stock market was disturbed last week due to investors' concerns about the Fed Chair Powell's hawkish tone. However, Powell's speech was neutral to dovish, opening the door for a rate cut in September, which is expected to benefit the Hong Kong stock market sentimentally. After the Fed starts to cut rates, China may introduce relevant easing and favorable policies, and policy expectations support the valuation of the Hong Kong stock market. The Hong Kong stock market is expected to remain resilient in the medium to long term [2][7][8]. - The current market confidence in the Hong Kong stock market remains strong, with continuous net inflows of southbound funds from the Chinese mainland. The market value of the Hong Kong stock market has good capital support. In the short - term, the Hong Kong stock market may have relatively low volatility, and investors can sell option combinations to reduce holding costs. In the long - term, investors can allocate dividend - paying sectors such as energy, communication, and utilities [2][6][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Investment Viewpoint 1.1 Market Summary - Last week, the Hong Kong stock market fluctuated. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.27% for the week, and trading volume remained relatively high. ETF funds shorting the Hang Seng Index and the Technology Index flowed out, indicating a weakening of short - selling forces. Southbound funds from the Chinese mainland continued to flow into the Hong Kong stock market, maintaining a relatively high level for the year [6]. 1.2 Market Environment - The external environment of the Hong Kong stock market was disturbed last week. After the release of the Fed's July meeting minutes, investors' risk - aversion sentiment increased. However, Powell's speech was dovish, which led to a rebound in the US stock market and is expected to benefit the Hong Kong stock market sentimentally. Southbound funds have been flowing into the Hong Kong stock market this year, and the expansion and allocation of the Hong Kong stock market led by mainland funds in the first half of the year may continue. The Hang Seng Index has broken through key resistance levels, and market confidence is relatively stable. The optional consumption and technology sectors performed well, showing investors' high risk preference. After the positive news from the Fed, the Hong Kong stock market's risk preference is expected to rise, and the valuation center may move up. In the medium to long term, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to remain resilient due to policy expectations [2][7][8]. 1.3 Future Outlook - Based on the market environment, the report is optimistic about the short - term and medium - to - long - term trends of the Hong Kong stock market. Technically, the Hang Seng Index is in an upward channel, and the inflow of southbound funds provides strong upward momentum. After the Fed cuts rates, the capital situation of the Hong Kong stock market may improve further. If subsequent stimulus measures boost domestic demand or high - valuation sectors find new performance growth points, the long - term market of the Hong Kong stock market can be expected [9]. 1.4 Sector Allocation - In the short term, investors can focus on leading stocks in the new consumption and Internet sectors, as well as sectors such as domestic substitution and innovative drugs. In the long term, investors can allocate dividend - paying sectors such as energy, communication, and utilities. In derivatives trading, investors can sell option combinations to reduce holding costs [2][10]. 2. Market Review 2.1 Futures Market Performance - Last week, Hong Kong stock index futures prices fluctuated. The Hang Seng Index futures price changed by 0.46%, and the Technology Index futures price changed by 1.84%. The positions of Hang Seng Index futures decreased by 5.25%, and the basis was 14.86; the positions of Technology Index futures decreased by 8.71%, and the basis was - 8.68 points. US stock index futures prices rose. The Dow Jones futures price changed by 1.50%, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures prices changed by 0.18% and - 0.98% respectively. The basis of major US stock index futures was stable, and traditional industries were more favored by funds [11]. 2.2 Hong Kong and US Stock Performance - The Hong Kong stock market fluctuated slightly last week. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.27%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.25%, and the Technology Index rose 1.89%. Most sectors in the Hong Kong stock market rose slightly, with the optional consumption and technology sectors rising 1.64% and 1.57% respectively, while the energy and raw material sectors weakened slightly. ETF funds showed a weakening of short - selling sentiment. Southbound funds from the Chinese mainland continued to flow into the Hong Kong stock market, with a net inflow of HK$17.904 billion. The US stock market fluctuated last week, with the Dow Jones rising 1.53%, the S&P 500 rising 0.27%, and the Nasdaq falling 0.58%. Most US stock sectors rose, with the energy sector rising 2.81% and the real estate sector rising 0.83%, while the communication services and information technology sectors fell [13]. 3. Market External Environment Tracking 3.1 Domestic Housing Sales - In the latest week (up to August 23), the total number of commercial housing transactions (net signing) in 30 cities was 15,148 units, with an area of 1.562 million square meters. The sales volume of first - tier cities decreased year - on - year, while that of second - tier cities increased significantly, and third - tier cities decreased. The total number of second - hand housing transactions in 11 observed cities was 165 units, with an area of 1.229 million square meters. The sales volume of first - tier cities increased year - on - year [24][25]. 3.2 Central Bank Movements - Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium was dovish, increasing traders' bets on a September rate cut. ECB President Lagarde said that the eurozone's economic growth may slow down this quarter, and the global trade situation remains unclear [26]. 3.3 Important News - China released July fiscal data, including general public budget revenue and expenditure. The US new home starts in July increased significantly, and Japan's July core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year [30]. 3.5 This Week's Focus - The report suggests paying attention to the US July core PCE price index annual rate, the final value of the US August University of Michigan consumer confidence index, and the final value of the US August one - year inflation rate expectation [28].