合成橡胶产业日报-20250826

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Report's Core View - The production of domestic butadiene rubber has increased due to the restart of previously overhauled devices, and the mainstream supply price has further increased. However, the high pressure - buying sentiment of downstream buyers has led to slow terminal sales. Last week, the inventory of production enterprises decreased slightly while that of trading enterprises increased. This week, the capacity of some overhauled devices will be significantly released, and domestic supply may increase significantly, with the finished - product inventory level expected to rise. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased last week but may decrease slightly this week due to high - temperature weather and limited overall order increments [2]. - The BR2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,750 - 12,300 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 43,120, a decrease of 3,585. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber was 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,490 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical in different regions increased by 150 - 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was 155 yuan/ton, an increase of 265 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil was 68.8 dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.07 dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 592.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 5.5 dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 840 dollars/ton, an increase of 10 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1095 dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of WTI crude oil was 64.8 dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.14 dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.11 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate was 68.15%, a decrease of 1.54 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 27,300 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 49.13%, an increase of 1.61 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 69.15%, an increase of 4.63 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber was - 458 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton; the social inventory was 30,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 23,200 tons, a decrease of 250 tons; the trader's inventory was 7,410 tons, an increase of 420 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.13%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 64.76%, an increase of 1.67 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, an increase of 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, an increase of 1.74 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.76 days, an increase of 0.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 47.05 days, an increase of 0.32 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of August 21, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. In July 2025, the output of butadiene rubber in China was 129,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.47% and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2].