Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction. Overseas supply arriving at the port has decreased, while downstream tire companies have a positive purchasing sentiment, leading to better-than-expected warehouse shipments. [2] - Last week, the domestic tire production capacity utilization rate increased. However, this week, the production capacity utilization rate of tire companies may slightly decline due to factors such as high - temperature weather and limited overall order increments. [2] - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,800 - 16,200 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,650 - 13,000 yuan/ton in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,790 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. [2] - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,095 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. [2] - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 139,114 lots, an increase of 6,184 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 58,896 lots, an increase of 1,690 lots. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 32,299 lots, an increase of 232 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 8,345 lots, a decrease of 1,124 lots. [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 177,290 tons, a decrease of 470 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 44,352 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Thai STR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton, an increase of 35 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian SMR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton, an increase of 35 US dollars/ton. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 was 12,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene rubber BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 935 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 1,055 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,058 yuan/ton, an increase of 185 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 268 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber smoke sheets was 62.3 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.75 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber films was 58.33 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.73 Thai baht/kg. [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue was 55.25 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.25 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup lump was 49.85 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.35 Thai baht/kg. [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 235 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19.2 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 37.8 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.6 US dollars/ton. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, a decrease of 21,300 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.76%, an increase of 1.67 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.13%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 39.76 days, an increase of 0.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 47.05 days, an increase of 0.32 days. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, an increase of 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, an increase of 1.74 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.01%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.69%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.78%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From August 24th to 30th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator were mainly concentrated in northern Vietnam, Laos, and southern Myanmar, which increased the impact on rubber tapping. The red areas south of the equator were mainly in western Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, slightly reducing the impact on rubber tapping. [2] - As of August 24th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71% compared with the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%; the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. [2] - As of August 21st, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. [2]
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250826
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-26 09:42