瑞达期货纯碱玻璃产业日报-20250826

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will face continuous pressure. However, with anti - involution speculation, there may be variables. It is recommended to go long on the soda ash main contract at low levels in the short term [2]. - For glass, the current situation is not optimistic. Although there is a small increase in deep - processing orders in the downstream, the overall inventory is rising slightly. It is recommended to go long on the glass main contract at low levels, but short - term long positions have limited opportunities [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1311 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan; glass main contract closing price: 1173 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan [2]. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 138 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; soda ash main contract open interest: 1,399,714 lots, up 13,450 lots; glass main contract open interest: 1,196,769 lots, down 4,653 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net positions: - 313,904 lots, up 11,584 lots; glass top 20 net positions: - 245,653 lots, down 10,925 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 9,313 tons, up 249 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 2,099 tons, up 456 tons [2]. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: - 111 yuan/ton, unchanged; glass September - January contract spread: - 189 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis: - 91 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; glass basis: - 109 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1,220 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy soda ash: 1,325 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash: 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash: 1,215 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - Shahe glass large plate: 1,064 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass large plate: 1,090 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 88.48%, up 1.16 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.34%, unchanged [2]. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.96 million tons/year, unchanged; glass in - production production lines: 223, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 1.8881 million tons, down 22,700 tons; glass enterprise inventory: 63,606,000 weight boxes, up 180,000 weight boxes [2]. Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area: 35,206 million square meters, up 4,841.68 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area: 25,034 million square meters, up 2,467.39 million square meters [2]. Industry News - National policies include improving domestic demand policies, promoting green - low - carbon transformation, and supporting forestry development [2]. - Soda ash supply is increasing, but profit recovery is not sustainable. Glass production is at a low level due to the impact of high - temperature weather on the real - estate industry [2]. - Shanghai has optimized real - estate and housing - loan policies [2]. Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash supply is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will be under pressure. Although there may be speculation about supply cuts, the de - stocking process will be repeated [2]. - Glass supply remains stable at a low level, demand from the real - estate industry is weak, and the inventory is rising slightly. The de - stocking trend remains unchanged, and there is a possibility of restocking [2].