瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250826

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of lithium carbonate was fluctuating weakly, with a closing decline of -0.75%. The trading volume decreased month-on-month, the spot was at a premium, and the basis weakened [2]. - In terms of fundamentals, the price of lithium ore fluctuated sharply with the spot price of lithium carbonate. The supply situation changed from strong to weak due to the resumption of production of some smelters in Jiangxi. The domestic supply may increase slightly, and downstream purchasing sentiment was cautious [2]. - Overall, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate remained unchanged, with both supply and demand increasing. The inventory was still high but decreasing. In the options market, the call position was dominant, and the implied volatility decreased slightly [2]. - The operation suggestion was to go short at high levels with a light position and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 79,020 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan. The net position of the top 20 was -152,176 lots, down 19,926 lots. The position volume was 349,496 lots, down 19,171 lots. The spread between near and far contracts was 560 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - The warehouse receipts of GZEE were 25,630 lots/ton, up 640 lots [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 81,700 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan. The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 79,400 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was 2,680 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 961 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars. The average price of amblygonite was 7,735 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 44,600 tons, up 500 tons. The monthly import volume was 13,845.31 tons, down 3,852.31 tons. The monthly export volume was 366.35 tons, down 63.31 tons. The monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 48%, down 4% [2]. - The monthly output of power batteries was 133,800 MWh, up 4,600 MWh. The price of lithium manganate was 33,000 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The prices of ternary materials (811 type, 622 power type, 523 single crystal type) in China remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 55,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of lithium cobalt oxide remained unchanged [2]. - The monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 52%, up 1%. The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 51%, down 1% [2]. - The monthly production of new energy vehicles was 1,243,000 units, down 25,000 units. The monthly sales were 1,262,000 units, down 67,000 units. The cumulative sales penetration rate was 44.99%, up 0.68%. The cumulative sales were 8,220,000 units, up 2,286,000 units [2]. - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles was 225,000 units, up 20,000 units. The cumulative export volume was 1.308 million units, up 600,000 units [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position was 201,196 lots, up 1,766 lots. The total put position was 151,582 lots, up 3,012 lots. The put - call ratio of total positions was 75.34%, up 0.8431% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options was 0.39%, down 0.0001% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From January to June 2025, the installation rate of L2 - level and above assisted driving functions in new energy passenger vehicles reached 82.6%, and the intelligent driving installation rate in the market below 160,000 yuan increased [2]. - The COO of Lantu Automobile believed that the involution in the new energy vehicle industry was not only about low - price competition but also low profit margins. Supply chain enterprises needed to maintain reasonable profit margins for high - quality development [2]. - The General Administration of Customs took measures in mechanism innovation, supervision strengthening, safety guarantee, and service optimization to improve the efficiency of import and export, reducing the customs clearance time of imported minerals and exported lithium batteries by over 80% [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium to listen to suggestions on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment, aiming to promote the healthy and high - quality development of the private economy [2].